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Monthly Analysis of China's Methanol Import and Export Forecasts (September 2026)

Published on 2026-10-10
  1. Import and Export Data Overview

Data Sources: Customs, Chempricehub News

In September 2026, the actual volume of methanol imported into China via ocean vessels was 426,400 tonnes (counted upon berthing; excluding Russian overland transport). This represents a decrease of 378,900 tonnes from the previous month’s customs-reported import volume (805,300 tonnes), marking a decline of 47.05%.

Data Sources: Customs, Chempricehub News

China’s estimated methanol exports in September 2026 were approximately 89,300 tonnes, a decrease of 32,400 tonnes from the previous month’s customs-reported export volume (121,700 tonnes), representing a drop of 26.62%.

  1. Influencing Factors

Imports: The blockade of the Strait has hindered the departure of cargo from the Persian Gulf. Additionally, major overseas plants are undergoing maintenance, and higher international prices have led to reduced allocations for China. These factors combined have caused import volumes to fall back to low levels again.

Exports: Despite the Strait blockade, arbitrage traders report that the arbitrage window remains open, so export arbitrage activities continue.

  1. Import/Export Structure

Monthly Estimated Ocean Vessel Import Volume by Country of Origin (September)

Trading Partner Quantity (tonnes) Share of Imports
Middle East 160,000 37.52%
Trinidad 56,000 13.13%
Venezuela 51,000 11.96%
Oman 41,000 9.61%
New Zealand 40,000 9.38%
Chile 40,000 9.38%
Russia 27,000 6.33%
Malaysia 10,000 2.34%
South Korea 1,440 0.34%
Total 426,440 100.00%

Data Source: Chempricehub News

  1. Trend Forecast

The estimated discharge volume for September methanol import cargoes is 426,400 tonnes. Within the month, 160,000 tonnes were discharged from key Middle Eastern regions, while 266,400 tonnes came from non-Iranian sources. Due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait, only a small amount of cargo was successfully dispatched. According to Chempricehub data, 393,000 tonnes of cargo were shipped from key Middle Eastern regions between September and early October (some of which were already discharged in September). However, arrivals from non-Iranian sources are expected to drop significantly in October. Therefore, total import vessel schedules for October are projected to continue declining, reaching approximately 345,400 tonnes. Of this, supply from key Middle Eastern regions is estimated at 197,000 tonnes (with some cargoes loaded at the end of September or beginning of October potentially unable to be discharged within October), and supply from non-Iranian sources is estimated at around 148,400 tonnes. (Due to multiple port-related factors, vessel arrival times may vary; therefore, actual port arrival volumes should be based on final terminal receipts.)

Comments

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  • Yuki Tanaka 2026-10-10 20:01
    A 47% drop in methanol imports due to Strait blockades tightens domestic supply, boosting capacity utilization. With Middle East feedstock constrained, I expect upstream margins to widen while downstream demand faces pot..
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