I. Key Points
Core Logic: Fundamentals are in a stalemate, leading to weak range-bound market fluctuations.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 14 | Sep 11 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 14,450 | 14,775 | -2.20% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Farm Pickup | 14,200 | 14,500 | -2.07% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 101.39 | 100.05 | 1.34% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15,600 | 15,650 | -0.32% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel. All other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices represent spot rates from the two preceding working weeks, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to period-over-period fluctuation. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, butadiene units at Dongming Petrochemical have gradually resumed operations, slightly alleviating the tight supply of spot resources in the North China region. Consequently, sellers have lowered their asking prices marginally. However, downstream demand remains sluggish, with low operating enthusiasm among enterprises and insufficient follow-up buying driven by essential needs for butadiene. This lack of demand may pressure market trends. Nevertheless, considering the relatively strong support from cost factors, the domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow, weak range.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Data | Expected Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 5:00 PM | 1.90 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 5:00 PM | 5,704.78 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 5:00 PM | 3.47 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Fri 5:00 PM | 63.85% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 5:00 PM | 10.33 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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