I. Key Focus Points
① 9/29: Mediators such as Qatar continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, while Saudi crude oil supply has seen some recovery, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $89.38, down $3.22/bbl (-3.48%); ICE Brent crude futures (November contract) closed at $102.59, down $2.69/bbl (-2.56%). China INE crude oil futures (2611 contract) fell by 17.2 to 716.9 RMB/bbl; the night session dropped by 11.7 to 705.2 RMB/bbl.
② Cost-side support remains adequate: Propylene feedstock prices held firm at elevated levels, while liquid chlorine prices declined slightly. Overall cost support is decent, though crude oil volatility influences market sentiment.
③ Downstream atmosphere is slightly subdued: As holidays approach, downstream demand saw pre-holiday stockpiling earlier, with some buyers now reducing volumes.
Core Logic: The market tested slight increases over the past two days. However, with the National Day holiday approaching and downstream players having largely completed their stockpiling, purchasing volumes are gradually decreasing. The market has stabilized into consolidation, with a cooling trading atmosphere.
II. Price Table
| Product | Market Name | 2026/09/28 | 2026/09/29 | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | Shandong | 9785 | 9740 | -45 | -0.46% | RMB/ton |
| Liquid Chlorine | Shandong | 200 | 50 | -150 | -75% | RMB/ton |
| Propylene Oxide | Shandong | 10700 | 10800 | 100 | 0.93% | RMB/ton |
| Flexible Polyether Foam | Shandong | 11200 | 11300 | 100 | 0.89% | RMB/ton |
| Propylene Glycol | Shandong | 8800 | 8900 | 100 | 1.14% | RMB/ton |
| Dimethyl Carbonate | Shandong | 5100 | 5200 | 100 | 1.96% | RMB/ton |
| Propylene Glycol Methyl Ether | East China | 11700 | 11700 | 0 | 0% | RMB/ton |
III. Market Outlook
Yesterday, the domestic propylene oxide market consolidated after minor gains. Supply-side units remained stable overall. Shipment conditions from operating plants showed regional divergence: normal trading activity persisted in northern regions, while southern markets relied mainly on contracted volumes with a sparse spot market atmosphere. The price gap between north and south narrowed. Short-term cost-side support was moderate. Downstream demand had seen gradual stockpiling previously; with holidays approaching, some buyers reduced follow-up purchases. The upward momentum slowed. Today, prices are expected to remain stable with consolidation, possibly featuring individual price negotiations. Specific developments should be monitored.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Indicator | Release Date | Previous Period Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate of Propylene Oxide | Thursday 17:00 PM | 69.71% | ↗ |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate of Polyether Polyol | Thursday 17:00 PM | 51.54% | → |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate of Propylene Glycol | Thursday 17:00 PM | 62.59% | ↗ |
| Note 1: ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| Note 2: ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations. |
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