Morning Market Brief: Propylene Glycol

I. Key Focus Points

1. Nov 5: The outlook for US-Iran relations remains uncertain, with the possibility of renewed conflict persisting, thereby increasing supply risks and driving up international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $90.52/bbl, up $2.40/bbl (+2.72% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (January contract) closed at $98.29/bbl, up $3.67/bbl (+3.88% WoW). In China, INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) fell by CNY 37.8 to CNY 638.4/bbl during the day session, but rose by CNY 1.40 to CNY 639.8/bbl in the night session.

2. Raw Materials: Propylene oxide (PO) prices are expected to weaken. Consequently, the theoretical profit margin calculation for propylene glycol (PG) has been revised upward, indicating improved profitability.

3. Supply: Most plants are operating stably, ensuring steady supply with limited fluctuations this week. Attention should be paid to potential operational changes at Shandong facilities next week.

4. Downstream Dynamics: The market center for unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) remains temporarily stable; however, spot prices for polyether continue to decline.

Core Logic: A sharp drop in international crude oil prices has negatively impacted market sentiment. New order buying is sluggish, and a cautious wait-and-see attitude prevails.

II. Price Table

Notes:

1. PG and DMC are industrial grade.
2. Prices are quoted in RMB per metric ton (CNY/MT).
3. Pricing basis: PG and DMC are ex-factory with acceptance notes; PO and polyether are ex-factory cash on delivery; UPR is factory pickup.
4. The two price points represent spot prices from the two previous working days prior to the report date, not weekly averages.
5. Change rate refers to the week-over-week percentage change.

III. Market Outlook

Domestic PG markets remained largely stable during the last working day. The primary raw material, propylene oxide, showed a weak trend, reducing cost support. Trading activity for new orders was thin. Some factories are fulfilling earlier orders and face no immediate pressure to allocate inventory, while others see slight inventory buildup. Given weakening costs and soft demand, domestic PG prices are expected to trade weakly in the short term. Monitor raw material price trends and downstream demand follow-through.

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor volatility, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations within the 0–3% range.