I. Key Focus Points (Highlighting cost changes, weekly supply-demand outlook, and integrating hot events)
Oct 26: Mediators continued to push for US-Iran peace talks, slightly easing market concerns over supply risks, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. The NYMEX WTI December futures closed at $101.76/bbl, down $1.51/bbl (-1.46% WoW); the ICE Brent December futures closed at $115.81/bbl, down $0.91/bbl (-0.78% WoW). The INE Crude Oil December 2026 contract rose by 22.7 yuan/barrel to 739.7 yuan/barrel during the day session but fell by 6.4 yuan/barrel to 733.3 yuan/barrel in the night session.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous business day, the domestic PO market saw an overall upward shift in price ranges. Following the weekend rise in propylene feedstock prices, PO prices were adjusted upward consecutively to relatively high levels. Weekend shipments were robust; however, propylene prices stalled today. Market sentiment shifted towards wait-and-see as downstream buyers gradually reduced volumes, causing trading activity to cool down. Spot transactions were sparse in some regions as participants digested earlier gains and consolidated.
| Product | Region | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 4875 | 5100 | +4.62% |
| DMC | East China | 5025 | 5300 | +5.47% |
| DMC | South China | 5700 | 5850 | +2.63% |
| DMC | Northwest China | 4405 | 4715 | +7.04% |
| Notes: 1. Industrial-grade DMC. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. Price basis: Shandong is ex-factory acceptance; East China is delivered acceptance; South China is delivered T/T; Northwest China is ex-factory T/T. 4. Change rate refers to week-on-week variation. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Metric | Release Time | Previous Period Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Production | Thu 17:00 PM | 59,900 tons | ↗ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thu 17:00 PM | 70.26% | ↗ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thu 17:00 PM | 78.72% | ↗ |
| Weekly Profit of PO Transesterification Process (CNY/ton) | Thu 17:00 PM | 179.3 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%. |
Forecast: On the previous business day, the domestic DMC market center moved higher driven by strong cost-side support. To alleviate cost pressures and safeguard profit margins, most plants raised their offer prices. Influenced by the "buy on rises, avoid falls" mentality, end-user expectations for further price increases intensified, significantly boosting purchasing enthusiasm and accelerating procurement pace. Overall market trading sentiment warmed up compared to previous periods. Chempricehub believes that the short-term domestic DMC market will primarily exhibit weak performance.
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