I. Key Focus Points (Highlighting cost changes, supply-demand outlook for the week, and integrating hot events)
Oct 22: Market concerns regarding potential escalation of US-Iran tensions, combined with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia increasing supply risks, drove international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) rose by $2.32/bbl to $99.47, a month-on-month increase of +2.39%. ICE Brent futures (December contract) rose by $4.35/bbl to $113.17, a month-on-month increase of +4.00%. China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) rose by 1.2 yuan/barrel to 702 yuan/barrel; night session trading saw a rise of 11.2 yuan/barrel to 713.2 yuan/barrel.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous working day, the domestic PO market trended downward within a specific range. Supply-side units remained stable. Due to limited shipments in earlier periods leading to inventory accumulation, negotiations for sales continued. Following today's price drop, the atmosphere for shipping improved slightly, with some downstream customers moderately increasing their purchases. However, others remained cautious and waited, observing the afternoon propylene closing price. The current spot market is showing signs of stabilization after a slight easing.
| Product | Region | Oct 21 | Oct 22 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5150 | 5025 | -2.43% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5300 | 5125 | -2.38% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 5800 | 5800 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Northwest China | 4605 | 4405 | -4.34% |
| Notes: 1. DMC refers to industrial grade. 2. Unit: RMB/ton. 3. For the table above, RMB prices are: Ex-works acceptance bill for Shandong; Delivered acceptance bill for East China; Delivered wire transfer for South China; Ex-works wire transfer for Northwest China. 4. Change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Metric | Release Time | Previous Period Data | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Production | Thursday 17:00 PM | 59,900 tons | ↗ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 70.26% | ↗ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 78.72% | ↗ |
| Weekly Profit via PO Transesterification Method (RMB/ton) | Thursday 17:00 PM | 179.3 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes between 0-3%. |
Forecast: On the previous working day, the domestic DMC market continued its weak downward trend, with supply-demand contradictions deepening further. On the supply side, as industry output volume continues to increase, goods circulation remains ample, factory inventories are gradually accumulating, and pressure to ship has risen compared to earlier periods. Some manufacturers have flexibly adjusted their quotations to alleviate inventory pressure. On the demand side, terminal consumption has seen a certain degree of contraction, with demand weakening notably in the electrolyte solvent sector, providing insufficient support to the market. Other downstream sectors largely maintain procurement based on actual needs or rigid demand follow-through, with limited overall purchasing increases, making it difficult to effectively absorb new supply. Chempricehub information suggests that the domestic DMC market will primarily exhibit weak performance in the short term.
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