Morning Market Update for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Points

1. Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the United States to advance peace negotiations. If accepted by the U.S., the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $92.41/bbl, down $2.20/bbl (-2.33% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $104.32/bbl, down $2.28/bbl (-2.14% WoW). China’s INE crude oil futures were suspended due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

2. As of September 28, Japanese naphtha closed at $898.25/ton, down $10.25/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $95.03/barrel, down $1.39/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic prices for cracked C5 fractions from major state-owned enterprises remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 rose by RMB 50/ton to RMB 7,500/ton. Today, private enterprise cracked C5 prices remain temporarily stable but are slightly lower than those of major state-owned enterprises. In downstream processing, inventory levels of piperylene monomer remain low and prices are firm. However, curing agent producers have shut down for the holiday, which may impact piperylene demand. Resin prices are temporarily stable with moderate buying interest.

4. Yesterday, the market for cracked C5 residual liquid maintained stable pricing while executing existing contracts. The Shandong market saw upward price pressure. Gasoline prices in Shandong fluctuated within a narrow range. Mixed C5, as a substitute product, traded at relatively strong prices. With the National Day holiday approaching, Chempricehub expects the cracked C5 residual liquid market to remain stable as contracts are executed.

5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market remained temporarily stable. Feedstock cracked C5 prices were steady. Transportation is constrained ahead of the holiday, and some downstream curing agent plants are preparing to shut down. Trading activity was light today, primarily focused on fulfilling prior orders. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from RMB 9,200–10,000/ton.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market remained temporarily stable. Downstream pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete, so today’s transactions mainly involve fulfilling prior orders with limited new negotiations. Mainstream bid/ask prices in East China ranged from RMB 13,600–14,200/ton.

7. Yesterday, dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) maintained a stable trend within the range of RMB 8,900–9,300/ton. Lower-end prices remained stable for long-term customers, while higher-end spot prices were subject to negotiation. There was slight pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment. DCPD supply remains tight, providing some support to prices and maintaining a sideways consolidation trend.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in road marking paints ranged from RMB 9,600–11,000/ton. Due to high resin prices, downstream buyers mostly maintained essential procurement needs, causing localized slowdowns in shipments. However, pre-holiday stockpiling and essential demand continue to support the market. Negotiated prices held steady at the beginning of the week.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for C5 petroleum resin used in piperylene-based adhesives ranged from RMB 11,500–13,600/ton. Prices for cyclohexane-free adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from RMB 10,500–11,200/ton. Elevated prices may amplify certain risks for downstream users. Orders for next month are gradually being negotiated, mostly at updated prices. Overall prices have risen to temporary highs.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 consolidates sideways; isoprene remains stable; piperylene remains stable; DCPD is temporarily stable; C5 petroleum resins show modest upward pressure amid stability.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. Pre-holiday restocking in Shandong may provide slight support for mixed C5 prices. Recently, private enterprise cracked C5 prices have been roughly aligned with those of major state-owned enterprises. In downstream processing, piperylene monomer inventories remain low with acceptable prices, while terminal resin demand is primarily driven by essential procurement.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to maintain mainstream stability. Gasoline prices are projected to stay stable with minor adjustments, and supply-demand conditions for mixed C5 remain unchanged. Pre-National Day holiday restocking expectations exist; Chempricehub predicts that refineries will maintain stable pricing and shipments for cracked C5 residual liquid in the near term.

Overnight crude oil prices rose, but the increase had limited supportive effect on the market. The gasoline sector is expected to consolidate steadily with positive shipment sentiment. Approaching the National Day holiday, Chempricehub anticipates that the mixed C5 market will remain stable and consolidate.

Isoprene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. Crude oil posted a small gain, and the tight supply situation for isoprene continues. Producers’ willingness to hold prices provides support. However, since downstream pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete, prices are expected to consolidate at high levels while awaiting further direction.

Piperylene prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. Crude oil posted a small gain, and producers are managing low inventory levels. However, with the holiday approaching, there are expectations for shutdowns in the downstream curing agent industry, and essential demand from the resin sector is limited. Therefore, piperylene prices are expected to remain temporarily stable.

DCPD prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. Downstream demand performance is average, but the tight spot supply situation is unlikely to ease soon. Producers maintain low inventory levels. Combined with pre-National Day holiday stockpiling, the market is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend before the holiday.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, construction volumes at the terminal end may be delayed due to excessively high raw material prices, and downstream acceptance of current price levels is weak. Additionally, resin supply is gradually recovering. Overall prices are expected to remain temporarily stable with minor pullbacks. For adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin, supply gaps persist during the peak season, and overall availability is scarce. After recent increases, prices are expected to stabilize temporarily.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Overview of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)