June is traditionally a low-season month for MMA demand. Despite maintenance shutdowns at some MMA plants during the month, it was still difficult to reverse the market's low-level operation trend. In the first half of the month, with supply-side support, the MMA market fluctuated within a narrow range. The operating ranges in East China and Shandong markets were 12,350-12,400 yuan/ton and 12,200-12,650 yuan/ton, respectively. Entering the second half of the month, as some units were started up while others were shut down, the capacity utilization rate edged up. Combined with falling costs on the feedstock side, some chemicals showed weakness, intensifying bearish sentiment and accelerating the decline in the MMA market. As of the morning of June 29, the reference price in the East China market was 11,100-12,300 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since mid-March.

1. MMA market edged down after narrow fluctuation in June

As shown in Figure 1, the East China MMA market operated below 13,000 yuan/ton in June. Although there was a slight rebound during the period, the extent was very limited. As June is a traditional off-season for MMA demand, and with costs declining and both domestic and foreign trade performance weak, combined with the downturn in chemical products dragging down market sentiment, the market experienced a broad decline in the second half of the month. As of the morning of June 29, the East China market reference was 11,100-11,300 yuan/ton, with even lower prices heard. The mainstream price dropped 1,150 yuan/ton from the end of May, a decline of 9.31%.

2. Supply side: gradual restoration of plant maintenance, slight increase in capacity utilization

From late May to mid-June, some MMA plants underwent maintenance, such as Shandong Hongxu, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zibo Qixiang Tengda, and Panjin Sanli, causing the short-term capacity utilization rate to fall to around 55%. Supply in the Shandong market tightened, leading to a price rebound during the month, with prices higher than those in East China. Changes in supply-demand relations in local markets resulted in a temporary price inversion.

Starting June 19, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Panjin Sanli, and Shandong Hongxu successively resumed operations, while on June 20, Jiangsu Jiankun conducted maintenance shutdowns. The capacity utilization rate rose to 57%. Coupled with increased selling pressure from some holders in the latter half of the month, offer prices began to soften.

3. Raw material price changes led to downward cost movement

Table 1: Comparison of some MMA upstream raw material prices (unit: yuan/ton)

| Region | 2026/5/29 | 2026/6/29 | Change | Change % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jiangsu Acetone | 7,075 | 5,100 | -1,975 | -27.92% |
| Shandong Isobutylene | 9,650 | 7,750 | -1,900 | -19.69% |
| Shandong MTBE | 6,300 | 5,250 | -1,050 | -16.67% |
| Shandong tert-Butanol (85% refined) | 6,900 | 6,000 | -900 | -13.04% |
| Jiangsu Sulfuric Acid (98%) | 2,100 | 2,450 | 350 | 16.67% |
| Taicang Methanol | 3,085 | 2,795 | -290 | -9.40% |

As shown in Table 1, comparing market prices on May 29 and the morning of June 29, among MMA upstream raw materials, except for sulfuric acid (98%) which rose, all others declined. Acetone fell the most, by 1,975 yuan/ton or -27.92%, followed by isobutylene, MTBE, and tert-butanol, down 1,900, 1,050, and 900 yuan/ton, with declines of 19.69%, 16.67%, and 13.04%, respectively. With raw materials weak, as shown in Figure 4, the cost lines of the two processes shifted downward. The above values are spot market references. At this stage, some plants still use feedstock from previous inventory, and MMA downstream raw materials also have similar situations. Therefore, current cost references vary depending on each plant's specific circumstances.

4. Low-season demand, quiet domestic and foreign trade

(1) Low-season demand: downstream operating rates decline

June is the traditional low season for MMA demand. Downstream buyers lacked purchasing enthusiasm. Some sectors, such as PMMA pellets, saw significant declines in operating rates, reducing demand for monomers. As shown in Figures 6 and 7, PMMA pellet prices fell sharply, with some grades falling below 13,000 yuan/ton, resulting in losses. The weekly operating rate of PMMA pellets dropped from 50% to 46%. Other downstream segments also experienced rate cuts or shutdowns.

(2) Export side: negotiations for foreign trade orders fell short of expectations, providing insufficient support for domestic market prices.

5. Lack of market confidence

Based on changes in fundamentals such as supply, cost, and demand, market confidence was insufficient. Additionally, some chemical products recently showed weakness, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in a market already in its off-season. According to a survey conducted as of June 29, regarding the outlook for July, 60% held a bearish view, mainly due to poor demand; 20% expected narrow-range fluctuation; and 20% believed the market might rebound after a fall.

Overall, some East China plants plan maintenance in July. If no unplanned shutdowns occur, the monthly capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. Meanwhile, given the traditional demand off-season, some downstream enterprises have reduced rates or shut down, making it hard for demand to show significant improvement. It is possible that the market may hit bottom and recover after a decline, but it will be difficult to change the month-on-month average price downtrend. Continue to follow plant operation dynamics and buying interest, and monitor changes in news.