① Monthly production increased by 16,600 tons to 218,900 tons;
② Consumption rose by 0.25% month-on-month;
③ Profit surged by 384% month-on-month.
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Monthly Price Change Table for Domestic n-Butanol Market
Unit: CNY/ton
| Region/Category | Previous Period Average | Current Period Average | Change in Value | Percentage Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 7004 | 8427 | 1423 | 20.32% | CNY/ton |
| Jiangsu | 7113 | 8528 | 1415 | 19.89% | CNY/ton |
| South China | 6965 | 8434 | 1469 | 21.09% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In September, the domestic n-butanol market experienced a strong rally to new highs before turning downward. Initially, the market continued the upward trend seen in August, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions that kept international crude oil prices fluctuating at high levels. Consequently, propylene, the key raw material for n-butanol, also remained elevated, providing cost support for n-butanol prices. Additionally, several n-butanol plants were undergoing scheduled maintenance shutdowns and had not yet resumed operations, keeping factory inventories low. The limited and tight supply pushed n-butanol prices higher. However, after prices reached their peak, downstream buyers resisted the high costs due to negative margins, leading to a decline in purchasing interest. Towards the end of the month, combined with a temporary sharp drop in propylene prices, cost-side support weakened. Production facilities faced difficulties in selling inventory, resulting in fewer high-priced offers and a continuous emergence of lower prices.
① Trends in international crude oil and propylene prices.
② Status of major downstream units and changes in market demand.
③ Maintenance status of n-butanol production units.
The domestic n-butanol market is expected to continue operating in a volatile but weakening trend in October. On the supply side, some maintenance units are scheduled to restart in October, along with potential commissioning of new capacity, leading to a sustained increase in market supply. This will alleviate the current tight supply situation and shift the market towards oversupply. Regarding demand, October falls within the traditional peak season for downstream industries. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise slightly, with a small wave of centralized procurement anticipated after the holiday break. While market demand is projected to increase modestly, this growth will be less significant than the expansion in supply. In terms of raw material costs, the upstream propylene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate at high levels, significantly influenced by international crude oil price volatility, thereby weakening cost-side support. Overall, with continuously rising supply, a gradual shift in market dynamics, and decreasing price support, the emerging oversupply situation may dampen downstream purchasing intent. Therefore, domestic n-butanol prices are predicted to experience high-level fluctuations followed by a decline in October.
For more monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Butanols Monthly Report.
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