I. Trend Analysis
According to Business Society's nickel price monitoring, nickel prices fluctuated upward this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was quoted at 149,150 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the beginning of the week and up 15.97% year-on-year.
Nickel Weekly Price Change Chart
Based on Business Society's weekly price change chart, nickel prices have fallen in 5 weeks and risen in 7 weeks over the past 12 weeks, with a recent rapid increase in nickel prices.
Nickel Industry Chain
Macroeconomic Factors: At the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched an attack on Venezuela to seize resources, then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to increased risk aversion. The US dollar found an opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets were mixed, precious metals such as gold and silver experienced corrections, and copper prices faced downward pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the rediscount and relending rates.
Supply Side: Indonesia significantly reduced nickel ore quotas, coupled with unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining areas, leading to an expected 20% reduction in global nickel ore supply. LME and domestic exchange inventories continued to decline. Although absolute levels remain high, the outflow trend has weakened the price-suppressing effect. Refined nickel production is expected to decrease month-on-month. Under production cuts, the short-term oversupply situation has narrowed, but overall market spot supply remains relatively ample. In November, China's refined nickel output was 25,800 tons, down 28.1% month-on-month.
Demand Side: Overall demand from the electroplating downstream remains stable, with limited growth expected in the later period. Alloy demand still dominates, with strong demand from military and shipbuilding sectors. Companies tend to purchase at low prices, and the "Two Sessions" emphasized medium- to long-term benefits from defense spending. Stainless steel demand is moderate, with slow destocking in social inventories. Improved steel mill profits may increase supply pressure, and spot transactions remain cautious. Nickel iron prices have recently seen slight increases. In the nickel sulfate sector, downstream ternary material production slightly declined after peak season inventory replenishment, and new capacity coming online in the medium term also imposes constraints, leading to recent price declines.
In summary, under the expectation of tightening ore supply, sentiment in the nickel iron market is bullish, with iron plants and traders raising nickel iron quotations. End-user demand for stainless steel is relatively weak during the off-season. Downstream ternary material producers mainly consume previous inventories, with production declining month-on-month. Amid the rapid rise in nickel prices, increased overseas deliveries have added inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to remain strong with fluctuations.
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