**October: Rising Prices of Rock Salt Intensify Bargaining Between Upstream and Downstream Sectors**

1. Key Highlights of the Month

Production: In October, sea salt inventories continued to be drawn down, with compliant-grade salt stocks also decreasing. The autumn harvesting of sea salt is underway and is expected to be largely completed by mid-November. Some rock salt producers in Shandong entered maintenance shutdowns, which have now resumed as of the end of the month; however, some facilities are not operating at full capacity, leading to a slight reduction in rock salt supply. Well-mined rock salt prices have been raised consecutively, prompting alkali-chemical enterprises to resist high quotes. Regarding imported salt, conflicts in the Middle East continue without any clear plans for de-escalation, keeping ocean freight rates elevated. Although domestic prices have risen slightly, the landed cost advantage of imported salt remains low. Chlor-alkali enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in limited actual transactions.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Domestic Raw Salt Price Movement Table (Monthly)

Unit: CNY/ton
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In October, the raw salt market in North China maintained a stable yet strengthening trend, with well-mined rock salt prices rising significantly. Major chlor-alkali enterprises in Zibo and Dongying increased their tender prices for raw salt. This year's autumn sea salt harvest faces expectations of reduced output for compliant-grade salt due to spring rainfall impacts. Previously, intense competition in the rock salt market drove sea salt prices down simultaneously. However, as rock salt supply decreased and costs rose, factory-gate prices were adjusted upward consecutively, leading to small simultaneous increases in sea salt prices, with strong willingness to raise prices. A rock salt producer in the Tai'an area has completed its maintenance shutdown. With the guarantee period for edible salt supply ending, it still needs to accumulate dry salt inventory modestly. There is an expectation for well-mined rock salt supply recovery, and rock salt inventories are gradually increasing. In late October, cross-regional circulation of Jiangsu rock salt began. Tai'an area prices are expected to adjust downward to squeeze out external sources. Jiangsu's newly added capacity of 3 million tons has commenced power-on production. Future rock salt supply will increase significantly, intensifying market competition, with potential for high rock salt prices to retreat. It is estimated that current raw salt prices will remain basically stable, with possible slight declines later. Attention should be paid to the usage volume of well-mined rock salt by chlor-alkali enterprises.

China's raw salt imports in September 2026 totaled 627,700 tons, a month-over-month decrease of 38.21% and a year-over-year decrease of 18.00%, with an average import price of USD 36.01/ton. Cumulative imports from January to September 2026 reached 8.8188 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 11.96%. Domestic raw salt prices showed steady gains. Major well-mined rock salt enterprises faced increased production costs due to rising thermal coal prices. Prices in key rock salt producing areas such as North and East China were raised by 10–15 CNY/ton. Although rock salt prices rose, the approaching autumn sea salt harvest meant that after previously increasing well-mined rock salt usage, sea salt consumption dropped. As autumn sea salt harvesting gradually progressed into October, future sea salt supply is expected to increase. With sea salt prices temporarily stable, alkali-chemical enterprises had higher selectivity. The landed price advantage of imported salt was not obvious, and downstream enterprises significantly reduced their purchases of imported salt.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

Demand – Chlor-Alkali Sector: In October, the liquid caustic soda market in North China generally corrected downward. During the month, major units including Jinling New Materials, Shandong Sanyue, Shandong Xinfa, and Jinling Chemical in Shandong underwent rotational shutdowns. Commodity volumes did not expand significantly, but non-aluminum sector follow-up procurement was inactive, continuing industry inventory destocking pressure. Downstream alumina procurement prices were gradually pushed down from 570 CNY/ton to around 515 CNY/ton, causing the monthly average price of Shandong 32% caustic soda to decline by 3.33% month-over-month to 607.2 CNY/ton. In Hebei, local supply and Tianjin commodity volumes remained loose during the month, pushing the price center further down to 647.67 CNY/ton, a month-over-month decrease of 2.87%.

Demand – Soda Ash Sector: In October, the domestic soda ash market trended toward stability, with prices remaining relatively firm, though some individual prices softened. On the supply side, soda ash maintenance shutdowns continued, keeping output at bottom levels, with a notable decrease in supply. Towards the end of the month, maintenance shutdowns gradually ended, leading to a narrow increase in supply. On the demand side, downstream demand was average, primarily based on immediate needs, with weak purchasing sentiment. Futures prices fell, creating an arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot markets, which led to increased transaction volumes. Enterprise inventories dropped significantly due to order fulfillment and reduced production. Export performance was stable, but freight impact was quite noticeable. New order transactions were average, with some enterprises making quiet price adjustments downwards. Recently, the ammonium chloride market performed well with rising prices. Meanwhile, coal prices fluctuated at high levels, keeping costs elevated.

4. Next Month Market Forecast

Raw salt prices in November are expected to remain mainly stable, with potential downward adjustments for high-priced rock salt. Autumn sea salt harvesting will be basically completed within November, with batches of compliant-grade sea salt entering the market. Some enterprises may sell at lower prices to manage cash flow, potentially dragging down market prices. After rock salt supply recovers, previous orders will be executed, equipment maintenance will conclude, and national reserves for edible and dry salt will be largely complete. Well-mined rock salt inventories will see a slight increase. Jiangsu’s 3 million ton and Shandong’s 2 million ton new capacities have commissioning plans within November. With supply increments, market competition will intensify. Downstream chlor-alkali profits are low, leading to strong resistance against high salt prices. Overall salt prices are expected to remain basically stable, with potential downside for rock salt.