Overview
The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding remotely, continuing to cool market concerns over crude oil supply. WTI crude oil prices stood at $76.79 per barrel, down 12.45%, while Brent crude oil prices were $79.55 per barrel, down 11.98%. Amid low supply and tight spot conditions, processing margins for PX and naphtha increased during the week. MX saw a larger rise due to policies and increased spot demand, reducing the PX-MX spread.

Key Points:

① This week, PX production reached 657,700 tons, unchanged month-on-month.
② The domestic average PX capacity utilization rate for the week was 79.33%, flat month-on-month.
③ The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate in Asia was 67.41%, down 0.75% week-on-week.

I. Crude Oil Prices Fall, PX Prices Decline

During the period (June 11, 2026 – June 17, 2026), the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding remotely, further easing market concerns over crude oil supply. WTI crude oil prices stood at $76.79 per barrel, down 12.45%, while Brent crude oil prices were $79.55 per barrel, down 11.98%. Amid low supply and tight spot conditions, processing margins for PX and naphtha increased during the week. MX saw a larger rise due to policies and increased spot demand, reducing the PX-MX spread. On Wednesday, June 17, the average price of PX in the Asian market was $1,091.17 per ton CFR China and $1,069.17 per ton FOB Korea, down $56.29 per ton from the previous week, with declines of 4.91% and 5%, respectively. Sinopec’s May PX settlement price was RMB 9,530 per ton (RMB 15 per ton discount for cash settlement).

During this period, market prices fell driven by geopolitical factors. There was a clear reversal in the Middle East situation: the US-Iran memorandum of understanding text was finalized and scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. Market sentiment shifted toward a conflict de-escalation and improved navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian oil tankers leaving the blockade rapidly unwound geopolitical premiums. Even though Netanyahu opposed the deal and implementation risks remain, the market’s main focus traded on the dissipation of geopolitical risks, continuously pressuring the market. On the cost side, the geopolitical easing dragged crude oil prices significantly lower, weighing on feedstock costs in the chain. This was compounded by the expectation of another interest rate hike by the Fed this year, further undermining costs. On the supply-demand side, actual demand remained weak, with polyester operating rates below 80%. However, industry processing margins remained at healthy levels, and there is an expectation of de-stocking in both supply and demand across the chain in the medium term. Geopolitical and cost headwinds dominated the week, driving a steady decline. After a full release of staged bearish factors, the expectation of balanced de-stocking in the medium term supported a price recovery at the end of the period.

II. No Plant Changes During the Week; Production Stable

There were no new changes in PX plants this week. The following units remained under maintenance: Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical’s 1.6 million ton unit, Hainan Refinery’s 1 million ton unit, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical’s 890,000 ton unit, Fugachem’s 800,000 ton PX unit, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million ton unit. Loadings at other plants were unchanged. This week’s PX production was 657,700 tons, unchanged month-on-month. The domestic average PX capacity utilization rate for the week was 79.33%, flat month-on-month.

This period, domestic PTA production was 1.2812 million tons, up 32,400 tons from last week. During the week, a 2.5 million ton per year PTA unit in East China restarted, while another unit reduced its load, leading to an overall increase in production.

III. Weaker Demand; Inventory Builds

PX Production Forecast for Next Week: Next week, the following units are expected to remain under maintenance: Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical’s 1.6 million ton unit, Hainan Refinery’s 1 million ton unit, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical’s 890,000 ton unit, Fugachem’s 800,000 ton PX unit, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million ton unit. Loadings at other plants are expected to be unchanged. PX production is forecast at 657,700 tons for the week.

Table 1: China PX Supply-Demand Balance

(Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Data Type | Data Item | This Period | Previous Period | Change | Next Period Trend |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Supply | PX Domestic Production | 65.77 | 65.77 | 0.00 | 65.77 |
| | PX Imports | 12.83 | 15.17 | -2.33 | 12.83 |
| | Total Supply | 78.60 | 80.94 | -2.33 | 78.60 |
| Demand | Domestic Consumption | 84.77 | 82.62 | 2.14 | 82.39 |
| | Exports | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| | Total Demand | 84.77 | 82.62 | 2.14 | 82.39 |
| Surplus/Deficit | Weekly Theoretical Balance | -6.16 | -1.69 | -4.48 | -3.79 |

Source: chempricehub

PTA Production Forecast for Next Week: Next week, Fugachem plans to shut down for maintenance. PTA production is expected to fall to 1.2453 million tons. Additionally, several PTA units are scheduled for maintenance at the end of June and early July, so production is expected to continue declining.

IV. Weak Demand; Prices Decline

This week’s sample survey included 20 enterprises: 15 PX producers, 3 downstream companies, and 2 traders.

• Bullish expectations: approximately 5%, supported by supply-side factors.
• Neutral expectations: approximately 35%, with the main view that there is no clear market direction.
• Bearish expectations: approximately 60%, with weak medium-term cost support.

PX prices are expected to decline next week, with weak cost support. However, tight spot supply and promising medium-term supply-demand dynamics may limit the decline. PX prices are forecast to trade around $1,045 per ton CFR China next week.

Cost side: International crude oil prices are expected to see some decline next week, with WTI ranging between $69–77 per barrel and Brent between $71–79 per barrel.

Supply side: Next week, Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical’s 1.6 million ton unit, Hainan Refinery’s 1 million ton unit, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical’s 890,000 ton unit, Fugachem’s 800,000 ton PX unit, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million ton unit are expected to remain under maintenance. Loadings at other plants are expected to be unchanged. PX production is forecast at 657,700 tons for the week.

Demand side: Next week, Fugachem plans to shut down for maintenance. PTA production is expected to fall to 1.2453 million tons. Additionally, several PTA units are scheduled for maintenance at the end of June and early July, so production is expected to continue declining.