Lead: Since mid-June, the domestic chloroform market has been consistently weakening, with the price center continuously moving downward, and the entire industry has entered a sluggish downward cycle. Under the superposition of multiple bearish factors such as ample supply, weak demand, and a spreading bearish market sentiment, the supply-demand pattern of the industry has continued to deteriorate. Enterprises face shipment pressure and high inventory levels, making market sales the top priority. However, based on the current market fundamentals, there is limited scope for a rebound in chloroform in the short term, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operating trend.
The chloroform market continued to decline, with enterprises under significant inventory pressure. Companies flexibly adjusted their ex-factory quotes based on their own inventory levels and shipment pace, causing the market center to keep moving lower. As of now, the spot price in the main producing region of Shandong stands at 1,700 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the earlier peak, a decline of 40%.
High Inventory Levels Driving Shipment Focus
Ample supply from the supply side and high inventory levels are among the main factors driving the continuous price decline of chloroform. Currently, chloromethane enterprises have decent profit margins and high operating rates. As of today, the capacity utilization rate of chloromethane stands at 79.07%. The supply of circulating chloroform goods in the domestic market is very abundant, and the industry's inventory backlog issue is prominent. Under high inventory pressure, enterprises are focusing on shipments, proactively lowering quotes to accelerate destocking. The overall pricing structure of the industry is loosening, forming a weak cycle of inventory buildup → price cuts for shipments → price decline.
Core Downstream Operating at Low Rates, Demand Continues Weak
The sustained weakness in demand and lack of fundamental support have completely dragged down the market trend. The consumption structure of chloroform is highly concentrated and singular, with downstream refrigerant R22 accounting for about 90% of the total. The prominent contradiction in supply and demand lies in the over-reliance on the main downstream refrigerant. In July, the overall capacity utilization rate of the refrigerant R22 industry continued to decline to around 70%. R22 production is still primarily focused on feedstock-grade products, with downstream factories purchasing on a need basis and showing low willingness for bulk purchases, significantly reducing the comprehensive consumption of chloroform. Additionally, during the traditional demand off-season, the fundamental support from downstream demand continues to weaken, becoming an important factor restraining the market.
Looking ahead, the weak pattern in the chloroform market is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the market is expected to continue weakening next week. On the supply side, plant operations are stable, and the ample supply situation is unlikely to improve soon. Inventory destocking is slow for enterprises, and supply pressure will persist. On the demand side, the issue of limited operating rates for the main downstream refrigerant R22 cannot be resolved in the short term. During the off-season, the model of terminal procurement on a need basis will continue, and the substantive support from the demand side will remain weak. In the short term, there are no signs of improvement in the fundamentals, and the domestic chloroform market will continue to face downward pressure. Subsequent attention should be focused on enterprise inventory levels and the impact of sluggish shipments on production units.
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