According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6,410 yuan/ton on January 1 and 6,890 yuan/ton on January 15, representing an increase of 7.49%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) was 8,400 yuan/ton on January 1 and 9,283 yuan/ton on January 15, reflecting a rise of 10.52%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) was 6,862 yuan/ton on January 1 and 7,300 yuan/ton on January 15, marking an increase of 6.38%. At the beginning of 2026, polyethylene exhibited a strong upward trend, with LDPE leading the gains due to its high import dependency. The main factors include geopolitical risks in Iran driving up crude oil costs, tightening supply expectations for imported high-pressure materials, and limited support from supply-demand fundamentals.

On the cost side: The situation in Iran has raised concerns about crude oil supply, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and providing strong cost-side support for polyethylene.

On the supply side: Polyethylene plant shutdowns and maintenance are expected to increase, while the pace of new capacity additions is slowing, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. Although previously idled plants are gradually resuming operations, overall operating rates remain relatively low, alleviating oversupply pressure. LDPE, with its high import dependency, is experiencing price increases due to tight shipping and delivery expectations for high-pressure materials.

On the demand side: Agricultural film is in its off-season, while packaging film demand is primarily driven by rigid restocking needs, with increasing resistance to high prices. Pre-holiday restocking provides temporary demand support, but as factories gradually shut down from late January to early February, demand is expected to weaken further.

On the futures side: The main polyethylene futures contract has been fluctuating upward, closing at approximately 6,766 yuan/ton on January 14, providing positive momentum for the polyethylene spot market. Supported by cost factors and futures strength, spot prices are expected to remain high and volatile. However, downstream resistance to high prices and slower transactions are limiting further upside potential. In the short term, polyethylene prices are expected to remain elevated with a slower pace of increase.