According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on January 2 was 6,410 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it was 6,625 yuan/ton, representing an increase of 3.35%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on January 2 was 8,400 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it was 8,933 yuan/ton, showing a rise of 6.38%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) on January 2 was 6,862 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it was 7,022 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 2.33%. Recently, polyethylene quotations have been continuously rising.

On the supply side, increased maintenance, controllable inventory, and tight supply of some sources have alleviated short-term supply pressure. For instance, the HDPE unit of Ningxia Baofeng and the LDPE unit of Maoming Petrochemical have entered maintenance. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural film has ended, with production in northern greenhouse films largely halted and orders continuously declining. Packaging film orders have seen a slight increase but only maintain a rigid demand restocking pace. Downstream factories are resistant to high-priced raw materials, primarily purchasing based on rigid demand and entering the market cautiously. Actual transactions are mainly focused on low-priced sources.

On the cost side: Polyethylene market conditions are supported by earlier increases in raw material prices. In the futures market: The main polyethylene futures contract has been fluctuating and climbing. As of the close on January 7, it showed a significant increase compared to pre-holiday levels. On January 8, futures remained high, continuously supporting sentiment in the spot market. Industry sentiment has significantly improved, with petrochemical companies and traders raising their quotations.

Forecast: In the short term, market support from futures and tight supply of some sources will keep the market in a relatively strong consolidation phase. In the medium to long term, the off-season demand for agricultural film will persist. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream operations are expected to further decline. Coupled with expectations of new capacity releases, the upside potential for polyethylene is limited.