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Preliminary Estimate Analysis of China's Methanol Import and Export Monthly Data (December 2025)

Published on 2026-01-04
  1. Import and Export Data Overview

Data source: Customs, Chempricehub

In December 2025, the final actual unloading volume of ocean-going vessels carrying methanol imports to China stood at 1.7546 million metric tons (counted upon berthing), up by 340,000 metric tons or 24.04% from the previous month's customs data of 1.4146 million metric tons.

Data source: Customs, Chempricehub

China's methanol exports in December 2025 are estimated at approximately 20,000 metric tons, down by 12,600 metric tons or 38.65% from the previous month's customs data of 32,600 metric tons.

  1. Influencing Factors

Imports: With unloading accelerated, most cargoes previously delayed were essentially all discharged in December, supporting a sharp rebound in unloading volume from ocean-going vessels.

Exports: This was driven by contract allocation among dollar-denominated traders, unrelated to regional price spreads.

  1. Import and Export Structure

Estimated monthly import volume of methanol into China by country/region of origin, based on ocean-going vessel data (December)

Trading Partner Volume (metric tons) Share of Imports
Middle East 1,383,930 78.87%
Chile 102,399 5.84%
Malaysia 50,000 2.85%
New Zealand 50,000 2.85%
Saudi Arabia 40,000 2.28%
Oman 38,000 2.17%
Trinidad 34,300 1.95%
Russia 28,000 1.60%
Venezuela 28,000 1.60%
Total 1,754,629 100.00%

Data source: Chempricehub

  1. Trend Forecast

In December, the unloading volume of imported methanol cargoes reached 1.7546 million metric tons (counted upon berthing), with accelerated unloading supporting a significant rebound in vessel arrivals. Among this, the Middle East, as the core supply region, contributed 1.3839 million metric tons, while non-Iranian cargoes accounted for 370,700 metric tons. According to the latest tracking data, total loading volume from the core Middle East region in December amounted to 722,000 metric tons, which has already seen marked reductions amid gas curtailment and plant shutdowns, and will lead to a sharp drop in January arrivals. On the non-Iranian front, cargoes from the Middle East and Russia saw incremental flows toward India for arbitrage opportunities, while South America and Southeast Asia maintained low operating rates due to maintenance and other factors. Combined with certain regional conflicts, non-Iranian methanol supply in January is expected to decline further month-on-month from December, with the possibility of dropping to a low level of around 300,000 metric tons. In summary, this network assesses total estimated methanol imports for January at approximately 1.05 million metric tons. (Due to multiple port-related factors, cargo arrival times may be subject to change; actual port receipts shall be based on final dock arrivals.)

Comments

0
  • Daniel Foster 2026-09-08 10:43
    The December import surge likely pressured port inventories, but with January arrivals forecast down sharply, I'd watch downstream demand and methanol margins before assuming this shifts the supply-demand balance.
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