Core Logic: Supported by cost pressures and reduced supply, while downstream resistance to high prices remains unchanged, the domestic butadiene market is expected to trade in a narrow range with a slight upward bias.
| Product | Region | Oct 30 | Oct 23 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 15,150 | 13,775 | 9.98% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Ex-Works Self-Pickup | 14,560 | 13,500 | 7.85% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,880 | 1,700 | 10.59% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 117.64 | 116.72 | 0.79% |
| BR Rubber (Cis-Butadiene Rubber) | Daqing BR9000 | 17,100 | 16,100 | 6.21% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel; all other units are RMB/ton. | ||||
| 2. The two price periods refer to spot prices from the previous two working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period change. |
| Data Type | Oct 30 | Oct 23 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sample Inventory | 4.56 | 4.41 | 3.40% | ↘ |
| Production Profit | 3,629 | 3,507.65 | 3.47% | ↗ |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | 67.19% | 66.46% | 0.73% | ↘ |
| Weekly Output | 10.87 | 10.76 | 1.05% | ↘ |
| 1. Capacity utilization rate reflects production metrics, calculated as the ratio of actual output to capacity for producing enterprises. | ||||
| 2. Weekly output represents the total weekly production of sample enterprises. | ||||
| 3. Production profit is based on theoretical calculations for the C4 extraction process. |
In the short term, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, keeping crude oil prices elevated and providing bottom-line support for costs. Additionally, maintenance shutdowns at some facilities in East and South China regions lead to an expectation of reduced domestic butadiene output, further supporting the market. Strong performance from key downstream products also provides positive guidance. Consequently, the butadiene market is expected to trend slightly higher in the short term. However, considering insufficient end-user demand and persistent downstream resistance to high prices, the domestic butadiene market is predicted to trade in a narrow range with a slight upward bias.
| Data | Release Date | Previous Value | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 17:00 PM | 2.53 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Friday 17:00 PM | 3,629.35 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 17:00 PM | 4.56 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Friday 17:00 PM | 67.19% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 17:00 PM | 10.87 | ↘ |
| Data Source: Chempricehub Information | |||
| Notes: | |||
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
Comments
0