I. Key Focus Points (Highlighting cost changes, weekly supply-demand outlook, and trending events)
Oct 29: Mediators continued to advance the US-Iran peace talks, causing international oil prices to decline. However, unresolved conflict risks limited the extent of the drop. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract fell by USD 0.78/barrel to USD 102, a week-over-week decrease of -0.76%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures December contract dropped by USD 0.44/barrel to USD 114.88, a week-over-week decrease of -0.38%. In China, the INE crude oil futures contract for December 2026 rose by CNY 13.5 to CNY 735.9/barrel during the day session but fell by CNY 14.4 to CNY 721.5/barrel in the night session.
Propylene Oxide (PO): Domestic PO market stabilized and began to recover from previous declines on the last trading day. Supply-side units remained largely stable. Shipments from operating plants generally improved today, signaling a halt to price drops. Downstream demand remained steady with some volume increases as buyers anticipated potential upstream raw material price hikes, strengthening supportive factors. Market participants are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach while monitoring afternoon propylene closing prices and potential rebounds in polyether orders.
| Product | Region | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5,100 | 5,100 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5,300 | 5,300 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 5,850 | 5,850 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Northwest China | 4,705 | 4,625 | -1.7% |
| Notes: 1. DMC refers to industrial grade. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. For the table above, prices in Shandong are ex-factory acceptance; East China is delivered acceptance; South China is delivered T/T (telegraphic transfer); Northwest China is ex-factory T/T. 4. Change rate indicates week-over-week fluctuation. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Indicator | Release Time | Previous Period Data | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Production | Thursday 17:00 PM | 59,300 tons | ↘ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 70.19% | ↘ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 78.01% | ↘ |
| Weekly Profit via PO Transesterification Process (CNY/ton) | Thursday 17:00 PM | 91.1 | ↘ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ signifies significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ signifies minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%. |
Forecast: The domestic DMC market is expected to exhibit a "weak start, strong finish" trend this week, transitioning from weakness to strength under the alternating influence of inventory pressure and cost support. Early in the week, some plants faced accumulating inventory pressure and slower shipment rhythms. To accelerate sales and alleviate stock burdens, factories proactively lowered quoted prices, dragging the market center down. Downstream buyers remained mostly cautious, purchasing primarily based on rigid demand, resulting in a sluggish trading atmosphere and weak market performance. Later in the week, rapid increases in raw material costs significantly strengthened cost-side support. Plants' willingness to maintain higher prices intensified, leading to upward adjustments in quotations. Price hikes stimulated end-user procurement sentiment, improving downstream buying enthusiasm. Inquiry and transaction activities gradually picked up, with market trading activity rebounding noticeably compared to the early week, marking a shift from weak to strong. Chempricehub suggests that the short-term domestic DMC market will likely consolidate, with attention focused on raw material trends and individual plant shipment conditions.
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