[Propylene]: Propylene Market Weekly Outlook (September 20, 2026)

I. Key Focus Points

1. Decline in International Crude Oil Prices: On Friday (September 18), the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract expiring in October closed at $100.3 per barrel, a drop of $1.61 per barrel (-1.58% week-on-week). The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract expiring in November closed at $103.87 per barrel, a decline of $0.95 per barrel (-0.91% week-on-week). The INE crude oil futures contract expiring in November 2026 fell by 50.6 yuan to 754.4 yuan per barrel, and dropped another 19.6 yuan to 734.8 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2. Propylene Production Costs: As of September 17, the production cost of propylene via naphtha cracking was approximately 9,093 yuan/ton; via PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) it was approximately 8,394 yuan/ton; and via methanol-to-propylene (MTP) using externally sourced methanol, it was approximately 11,936 yuan/ton.

3. Narrow Spread Between Propylene and PP: As of September 18, the spot price of propylene in Shandong was 9,675 yuan/ton, while the price of polypropylene powder (Linyi grade 045) was 9,830 yuan/ton, resulting in a narrow price spread between the two.

4. Restart of Lijin Refining & Chemical Unit: The 120,000-ton/year catalytic cracking unit at Lijin Refining & Chemical, which had been shut down since August 15, restarted on September 18.

5. Shutdown of Shandong Hengtong MTO Unit: The 180,000-ton/year Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) unit at Shandong Hengtong shut down on September 18. The restart date is yet to be determined.

6. Planned Shutdown of Ningbo Fude MTO Unit: The 400,000-ton/year MTO unit at Ningbo Fude plans to shut down on September 19. The restart date is yet to be determined.

Core Logic: Declining international crude oil prices, stable costs within a narrow range, and a tight price spread between Polypropylene (PP) and propylene.

II. Price Table

Notes:

1. This table reflects mainstream transaction prices in key propylene markets. All prices are VAT-inclusive and denominated in yuan/ton.
2. The prices listed represent point-in-time values from the two preceding working weeks relative to the current period, not weekly averages.
3. The change rate refers to the week-on-week percentage change.

III. Data Table

Notes:

1. Daily output data compares sample daily production across all national enterprises over the past two working weeks.
2. Capacity utilization reflects the ratio of actual production output to total capacity for producing enterprises, serving as an indicator of production levels.
3. Production profit represents industry-wide data, reflecting the overall profitability situation in mainstream regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price.