I. Price Trend
According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, the spot market for PVC experienced range-bound fluctuations this week (January 12–16), with prices showing weakness. As of Friday, the average price of domestic PVC calcium carbide-based SG-5 grade was 4,496 yuan per ton, representing a weekly decline of 0.62%.

II. Market Analysis
This week, PVC did not continue the upward trend observed last week, instead stabilizing with a slight downward bias. Although some manufacturers adjusted prices at the beginning of the week, resulting in an increase of less than 50 yuan compared to the previous week, the market was constrained by weak futures performance. The spot market also remained subdued, with most distributors making minor adjustments to their quotations, showing little significant change.

From a supply and demand perspective, manufacturers maintained stable operations with high operating rates. Supply pressure remained largely unchanged, while distributor quotations were generally weak. Downstream demand was insufficient, with procurement primarily focused on fixed-price purchases. Inquiry and procurement activities were subdued, leading to a quiet market atmosphere. Listed prices remained relatively low. Overall, demand was driven mainly by rigid needs, and trading activity was moderate. As of now, domestic quotations for PVC SG5 calcium carbide-based material mostly range between 4,580 and 4,630 yuan per ton.

Regarding upstream calcium carbide, the market remained stable this week (January 12–16), with narrow fluctuations in recent periods. According to the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, the weekly price change was 0%. Since the beginning of January, the calcium carbide market has stopped declining but shows no signs of rebounding, providing limited support for PVC.

III. Future Outlook
Business Society PVC analysts believe that, first, on the cost side: calcium carbide prices remain stable, and although ethylene prices in US dollars are expected to decline (710–730 USD/ton), the impact on PVC costs is limited. Second, supply may face some contraction: maintenance at Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan continues, and domestic operating rates are expected to decline slightly, which will alleviate inventory pressure to some extent. Third, demand remains weak: downstream enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival, with procurement driven mainly by rigid needs. Resistance to high prices is evident, and actual transactions remain sluggish.

Considering these factors, it is expected that PVC prices will continue to fluctuate with a slight upward bias next week, although the upside potential will be constrained by demand. Prices for calcium carbide-based SG5 grade in East China are projected to remain within the range of 4,580–4,730 yuan per ton, with fluctuations narrowing compared to this week.