Raw Salt Market Sentiment Stabilizes; Focus on Commissioning of New Capacity (Oct 23–29, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: Autumn sea salt harvesting is underway. Companies that started harvesting early have largely completed the process. The northern salt-producing regions are expected to finish autumn sea salt harvesting by mid-November, leading to an anticipated increase in sea salt supply. In North China, well and rock salt producers have completed maintenance shutdowns, restoring rock salt supply; well and rock salt inventories have risen slightly. In East China, new capacity for well and rock salt has been powered up, though the trial production timeline remains uncertain. Import salt landed prices remain high. After recent price hikes, domestic salt prices have stabilized temporarily. A price gap persists between imported salt and domestic raw salt, with chlor-alkali enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach.

2. During this week (October 23–29, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with capacities of 100,000 tons or more was 78.3%, up 3.3% week-on-week. One chlor-alkali unit underwent maintenance, while six units restarted. By region, chlor-alkali operating rates increased in Northwest, North, East, South, and Northeast China, but decreased in Central and Southwest China. Shandong’s chlor-alkali operating rate this week was 83.9%, up 7.5% week-on-week. Looking ahead to next week, three chlor-alkali units are scheduled for maintenance, and five are planned to restart. The national chlor-alkali operating rate is projected to recover to approximately 78.9%.

3. According to reports on October 29, 2026, the overall capacity utilization rate for soda ash this week was 66.55%, compared to 64.68% last week, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. Specifically, the ammonia-soda process utilization rate was 73.79%, down 1.13 percentage points week-on-week; the combined-production process utilization rate was 66.39%, up 3.21 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate for 16 enterprises with annual capacities of one million tons or more was 72.60%, up 1.29 percentage points week-on-week.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Raw Salt Markets
Unit: CNY/ton

Sea salt prices remained stable with slight increases during the week, showing minimal fluctuation. Upward momentum for well and rock salt prices weakened. Enterprises that began autumn harvesting earlier have nearly completed their harvests. In coastal areas of the north, autumn sea salt harvesting is expected to conclude by mid-November. As autumn sea salt harvesting continues, future supply is expected to increase. There is little willingness among sea salt producers to push prices lower from previously low levels. In North China, rock salt supply recovered after maintenance shutdowns were completed, with companies primarily fulfilling existing orders. Supply guarantees for edible salt and dry salt have been largely met, resulting in slight inventory accumulation for rock salt. Rock salt prices remained stable during the week, and the bullish sentiment has mostly dissipated. Tender prices from chlor-alkali enterprises were largely flat. There is potential for minor catch-up increases in rock salt prices in southern Shandong. In East China, rock salt prices remained stable due to sufficient supply, with companies executing prior orders. New well and rock salt capacity in East China has been powered up and is preparing for trial production; attention should be paid to the specific commissioning date. Raw salt prices in Central China were relatively stable, with salt producers actively shipping goods and downstream buyers making purchases based on rigid demand. In Northwest China, some chlor-alkali units resumed operations following previous maintenance, although reduced-load enterprises in Ningxia have not yet recovered. Chlor-alkali operating rates remain low. Supply of lake salt and well/rock salt in the northwest is ample, keeping regional raw salt prices basically stable.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

4. North China: Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in the Shandong region gradually declined this week. Initially, price adjustments were concentrated in the southern area. Markets in western, southwestern, and southern Shandong saw 32% caustic soda prices drop successively to 580–615 CNY/ton. To alleviate shipment pressure, northern producers continued to boost enthusiasm for shipments to alumina customers, and negotiations with existing clients led to moderate concessions. By late in the week, after alumina procurement prices dropped by 10 CNY to 560 CNY/ton, most quotes in the north followed suit with declines of 10–20 CNY. Southern producers, having already adjusted prices earlier, mostly maintained stability subsequently.

5. Soda Ash: The domestic soda ash market trended weakly this week, with prices remaining largely stable with minor fluctuations. Chempricehub data monitoring indicated that domestic soda ash production was 605,600 tons for the week, a decrease of 108,300 tons week-on-week, representing a 15.17% drop. The overall capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 64.59%, down from 76.15% last week, a decrease of 11.55 percentage points. Ongoing equipment maintenance resulted in a significant reduction in supply.

6. Next Week Market Forecast

Raw salt prices are expected to remain primarily stable in November, with high-priced rock salt potentially facing downward adjustment. Autumn sea salt harvesting will be largely completed within November, bringing qualified sea salt to the market in batches. Some enterprises may sell at lower prices to improve cash flow turnover, thereby dragging down market prices. After rock salt supply recovers and prior orders are executed, with maintenance concluded and state reserves of edible and dry salt largely secured, inventories of well and rock salt are expected to rise slightly. New capacities of 3 million tons in Jiangsu and 2 million tons in Shandong are scheduled to come online in November. Increased supply will intensify market competition. Downstream chlor-alkali profits are low, creating strong resistance to high salt prices. Overall, salt prices are expected to remain basically stable, with rock salt prices likely to decline.