Rising Costs Drive a New Round of Price Increases in the MMA Market

In 2026, the market faces numerous uncertainties, and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy and chemical product trends is self-evident. These factors trigger a chain reaction across the industrial chain, driving price transmission and reshaping profit distribution among products. For methyl methacrylate (MMA), although prices are primarily driven by supply and demand, elevated costs in 2026 have placed significant focus on the raw material market. From the industry-wide rally in March–April to the market cooling in May–June, and then to the strong cost-side influence in July–September, raw materials have been critical to MMA’s price trajectory. As September progresses, with geopolitical tensions continuing to escalate and certain upstream product prices surging, the question remains: will MMA follow suit?

I. After mild consolidation in early September, MMA enters a new upward cycle

Table 1: List of MMA and Related Product Prices

As shown in Figure 1, as of September 10, after the market center shifted upward at the end of August, the momentum for MMA in September slowed down. Increased supply and difficulties in transmitting high prices downstream led to a firm but transitional market from the beginning of last week through Thursday.

However, during the same period, acetone rose by 1,375 CNY/ton over just four working days, a gain of 17.80%, breaking the 9,000 CNY/ton threshold. Other raw materials such as methanol, isobutylene, and tert-butyl alcohol also maintained an upward trend. Consequently, after a period of stagnant consolidation, MMA faced rapidly rising costs and mounting cost pressure. On September 11, the market turned upward, initiating a new bullish cycle.

With costs remaining persistently high, sentiment within the market for raising prices was evident. As shown in Table 1, by the morning of September 14, the reference price in the East China market was around 13,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,250 CNY/ton compared to early September.

II. Raw material price increases vary in September, significantly boosting cost pressure

Table 2: Comparative Statistics of Some MMA Upstream Raw Material Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

As seen in Table 2, comparing market prices on the mornings of September 1 and September 14, upstream raw materials for MMA generally increased. Acetone saw the largest rise, up 2,025 CNY/ton (27.93%). This was followed by methanol (+580 CNY/ton, +18.01%), isobutylene (+950 CNY/ton, +8.60%), MTBE (+575 CNY/ton, +7.90%), and tert-butyl alcohol (+400 CNY/ton, +5.48%).

III. Market sentiment predominantly expects a bull run

As of September 14, 2026, a survey of domestic market participants’ sentiment revealed that 80% expect a bullish market in September, while 20% anticipate a bearish trend. The rationale for the bullish view includes the sharp rise in raw material prices in September, rapidly increasing costs for both production processes, strong cost support, and lingering expectations for pre-holiday stockpiling. The bearish view argues that downstream sectors are under significant cost pressure, making price transmission difficult, which could lead to a pullback after an initial surge.

IV. Strong market momentum for MMA in September is unlikely to change

(1) Supply Side: Recent raw material price hikes have been significant, placing factories under cost pressure. Coupled with concurrent plant startups and shutdowns among domestic MMA producers, there is a possibility of declining industry operating rates due to raw material constraints or unplanned incidents.

(2) Cost Side: Since breaking the 8,000 CNY/ton mark in the first half of the year, acetone prices have hit new highs. Other raw materials, such as methanol, are also at relatively high levels. Clearly, raw material prices provide substantial support to the MMA market.

(3) Downstream Sector: While downstream industries face considerable cost pressure, there has been no significant adjustment in operating loads so far, indicating continued rigid demand. In the long term, the impact of cost pressures on downstream operations warrants close attention.

Conclusion: In summary, both upstream and downstream sectors are facing cost pressures in the short term, and the possibility of reduced operating rates cannot be ruled out. However, given the sustained high levels of upstream costs, the short-term market trend is likely to remain strong. Medium- to long-term movements will depend on a combination of geopolitical situations, raw material prices, supply conditions, and downstream absorption capacity.