Introduction: Raw material market prices continued to climb, and DINP prices followed upward on cost support. As of August 21 (similarly hereinafter), the DINP market price in Jiangsu reached 9,550 yuan/ton, up 8.52% from the end of last month.
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Rising raw material prices push up DINP prices
At the beginning of the month, market players actively shipped goods, and prices showed slight concessions. However, as supply of the related raw material octanol declined, raw material market prices rose, and DINP followed upward. In the first half of the month, the increase was 200 yuan/ton, relatively slow. During the gradual price rise, end users and traders built limited inventories, mostly purchasing on a need-to-basis. In the latter part of the month, crude oil and propylene prices rose. With octanol units entering scheduled maintenance, spot supply tightened further, spurring a new round of buying sentiment in the DINP market. Driven by both trading activity and costs, prices rose to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 450 yuan/ton, showing accelerating gains.
DINP supply increases while market operates at a loss
At the beginning of the month, several DINP units cut production, such as Zhenjiang Liancheng and Hefeng, while some units remained shut down after stoppage, such as Heshun Chang, Litian, and Jiuhong. The market capacity utilization rate fell to 61%. However, as shut-down units restarted and reduced-production units resumed operation, the DINP capacity utilization rate recovered to 88% as of August 21. Market supply transitioned from queue-based delivery to spot supply. Meanwhile, with both phthalic anhydride and octanol prices rising, market profitability declined. Theoretical operating costs largely remained in a loss-making zone, with average monthly profit at -249 yuan/ton.
Outlook
Market prices have risen too quickly, and end users' high costs have not yet been passed downstream. Buying demand may slow at elevated prices, and subsequent demand support is weak. On the supply side, units are currently operating normally, and output supply is relatively ample. However, with further raw material price increases, some units may cut production again, but for now supply remains relatively stable. The DINP market will continue to be mainly cost-driven. From the octanol perspective, spot supply remains tight, and maintenance is expected at some East China units from September to October. Local tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term, and market prices still have upward momentum. DINP market prices still have room to rise in late August.
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