Slow Release of New Orders; High-Price Decline in Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Sep 18–24, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Cost Side: Feedstock ethylene oxide prices remained stable during the week, providing bottom-line support to costs.
2. Supply Side: Most monomer plants maintained normal production, resulting in relatively steady supply availability.
3. Demand Side: Downstream buyers showed resistance to high prices, leading to reduced willingness for inventory buildup.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

During this period (September 18–24, 2026, same below), polycarboxylate superplasticizer (PCE) monomer prices declined from highs, and market trading activity slowed. As of September 24, the mainstream price for PCE monomer EPEG in the East China market was 11,450 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY/ton from the previous week. The weekly average price for EPEG in the primary East China market was 11,866.67 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 691.67 CNY/ton. Specifically:

1. East China Market: Most plants maintained normal production, with minor load adjustments at individual facilities. Signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to lower crude oil prices and a decline in ethylene glycol prices from high levels, increasing bearish sentiment among market participants regarding future prospects. While spot supply of ethylene oxide remained tight and prices held firm—providing some cost support—strong downstream resistance to high prices and insufficient follow-up orders weighed on the market. High-priced cargoes faced poor transaction volumes, causing monomer prices to drop. New transactions were primarily driven by rigid demand via small-lot purchases, resulting in a sluggish trading atmosphere.

2. Northeast China Market: Enterprise units operated steadily, with most maintaining negative inventory positions, indicating no significant supply pressure currently. An increase in low-priced cargoes within the market heightened holders' willingness to sell. Influenced by the "buy when rising, not when falling" mentality, downstream buyers entered the market cautiously, with most purchasers adopting a wait-and-see approach.

3. South China Market: Spot resources were limited, and some enterprises continued to offer spot goods at high prices, though transactions often involved concessions. Downstream willingness to purchase at high prices was low; buyers focused strictly on rigid demand, exhibiting strong risk-aversion sentiments. Consequently, the market's supply-demand structure remained weak.

4. Market Influencing Factors (Data)

1. Supply Data: During this period, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic PCE monomer industry stood at 26.72%, decreasing by 0.29 percentage points week-on-week. Weekly output was 29,800 tons, down 1.00% from the previous week.

2. Inventory Data: As of Thursday, the factory-end sellable inventory ratio for domestic PCE monomers was -33.23%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from last week. Sellable inventory volume was -63,500 tons, up 1,200 tons compared to the previous period.

3. Cost Data: During this period, the weekly average cost for HPEG in East China was 10,729 CNY/ton, up 485 CNY/ton week-on-week. The weekly average cost for TPEG was 10,549 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton week-on-week.

4. Profit Data: During this period, the weekly average profit for HPEG in East China was 1,204.33 CNY/ton, up 178.33 CNY/ton week-on-week. The weekly average profit for TPEG was 1,384.33 CNY/ton, up 163.33 CNY/ton week-on-week.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

1. Supply Forecast: Monomer plant loads may fluctuate within a narrow range, with overall operating rates expected to remain relatively stable.

2. Demand Forecast: With holidays approaching, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is unlikely to see significant improvement, with only rigid demand being released.

3. Cost Forecast: Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, potentially providing support to monomer costs.

Comprehensive Outlook: Next week, high PCE monomer prices may continue to soften, with market fluctuations largely dependent on changes in supply-demand dynamics.

• Supply Side: Some units may see increased output expectations, while other monomer producers will likely make minor load adjustments. Overall operating rates are expected to change little. Currently, monomer enterprises are primarily fulfilling accumulated backlog orders, so there is no immediate supply pressure. However, if the downward price trend persists, new order inflows may slow. A combination of recovering supply and weak demand could further drag down prices.
• Demand Side: October remains a traditional peak consumption season. However, if monomer prices continue to trade weakly, downstream buyers may adopt a cautious wait-and-see stance. Insufficient terminal orders subsequently could dampen buyer enthusiasm for bulk procurement. Lacking volume support, supply-demand contradictions may gradually emerge.
• Cost Side: Geopolitical situations involving the US and Iran remain uncertain. Ethylene glycol supply still faces gaps, suggesting prices may oscillate within a range. Spot supply of feedstock ethylene oxide is unlikely to loosen significantly in the near term. Downstream industries across sectors are maintaining rigid consumption levels. Ethylene producers have limited available inventory, and demand is moderate, leading to stagnant or consolidating prices. In the short term, fundamental factors are expected to support the ethylene oxide market, keeping prices stable.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information PCE Monomer Weekly Report.