I. Review of Soda Ash Market in 2025
According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, the soda ash market in 2025 experienced a weak and declining trend, with prices fluctuating downward. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 1,528 yuan/ton, while the year-end average was 1,250 yuan/ton, representing an annual decline of 18.19%. Under the triple pressures of "high supply, weak demand, and high inventory," the sustainability of price rebounds in the soda ash market was severely constrained. Throughout the year, there were only three notable price increases:

• Early March: Prices rose driven by maintenance expectations and delays in new capacity.
• July: Prices increased due to expectations of "anti-internal competition" policies and cost support.
• Fourth Quarter: Prices improved temporarily, supported by rising coal costs and a surge in exports.
  Overall, the soda ash industry faced simultaneous capacity expansion and weak demand, leading to continuous market sentiment fluctuations.

II. Analysis of Factors Influencing Soda Ash Prices in 2025

1. Capacity Expansion and Supply Pressure

   • Jiangsu Debang (Ammonia-Soda Process): 600,000 tons (March 2025)
   • Lianyungang Alkali Industry (Ammonia-Soda Process): 1.1 million tons (May 2025)
   • Hubei Shuanghuan (Ammonia-Soda Process): 300,000 tons (May 2025)
   • Yingcheng Xindu Chemical (Ammonia-Soda Process): 700,000 tons (End of 2025)
   • Yuanxing Energy Phase II (Natural Soda Ash Process): 2.8 million tons (December 2025)
     Total New Capacity: 5.5 million tons
     In 2025, new facilities from Lianyungang Alkali Industry, Lianyungang Debang, Yingcheng Xindu Chemical, and Hubei Shuanghuan commenced operations, adding 5.5 million tons of capacity—a 14% increase—bringing total capacity to 45 million tons.
     Amid ample supply, imports sharply contracted, while exports became a critical outlet. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were only 21,700 tons, down 97.76% year-on-year, while exports surged to 1.9612 million tons, an 88.83% year-on-year increase, reaching a five-year high and achieving significant import substitution.

2. Weak Downstream Demand
   The downstream glass market experienced a volatile decline in 2025. Float glass faced reduced profits and increased cold repairs due to declining real estate completion areas. Although photovoltaic glass saw some growth, industry profit margins were squeezed, and capacity expansion slowed, leading to a significant drop in demand for heavy soda ash.
   Light soda ash demand was partially supported by the growth of downstream lithium carbonate, driven by the new energy vehicle sector, but its relatively small share could not offset the decline in heavy soda ash demand.

3. High Inventory Pressure Limiting Price Rebound
   Soda ash inventories remained high throughout 2025, fluctuating above 1.4 million tons. By year-end, combined manufacturer and delivery warehouse inventories exceeded 2 million tons, reaching a historically high level. High inventory became a major factor suppressing prices.

4. Cost Advantages
   Production costs varied significantly across processes:

   • Natural Soda Ash Process: Below 1,000 yuan/ton
   • Ammonia-Soda Process: 1,050–1,200 yuan/ton
   • Solvay Process: Above 1,300 yuan/ton
     Companies using the Ammonia-Soda and Solvay processes faced survival pressures, with many operating at a loss. In contrast, the natural soda ash process offered a clear cost advantage, enhancing China's competitiveness in the international market and driving domestic soda ash exports.

III. Soda Ash Market Outlook for 2026

1. Continued Supply Pressure
   Soda ash capacity expansion is expected to slow in 2026. In the first half of the year, capacity adjustments will mainly stem from the ramp-up of Yuanxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu Chemical projects, which commenced at the end of 2025. In the second half, new projects from Jinshan Hubei Qianjiang and Hunan Xuetian Salt Alkali are scheduled to come online, adding 2.5 million tons of capacity. Total industry capacity is projected to reach 47.5 million tons in 2026, with output increasing by over 10% year-on-year. Supply-side pressure will persist, and high inventory levels will continue to limit price rebound potential.

   • Jinshan Hubei Qianjiang (Ammonia-Soda Process): 1.5 million tons (Second Half of 2026)
   • Hunan Xuetian Salt Alkali (Ammonia-Soda Process): 1 million tons (Second Half of 2026)
     Total New Capacity: 2.5 million tons

2. Weak Demand Growth
   Float glass demand is unlikely to improve significantly due to the drag from the real estate cycle. Photovoltaic glass faces overcapacity and slowing installation growth, reducing demand for heavy soda ash. Light soda ash demand is expected to grow by approximately 8%, driven by downstream sectors such as lithium carbonate, water treatment, and monosodium glutamate. However, overall demand growth will lag behind supply growth, making it difficult to alter the oversupply dynamic.

3. Industry Restructuring and Optimization
   Faced with increasing capacity and compressed profits, 2026 will be a critical phase for capacity rationalization and structural optimization in the soda ash industry. The natural soda ash process, with its low-cost and low-energy consumption advantages, will continue to expand its market share and become the dominant force. In contrast, high-cost Solvay process capacity will face accelerated exit pressures.

IV. Summary and Outlook
In the short term, market sentiment will remain mixed, with prices fluctuating at low levels and the overall industry outlook leaning bearish. In the long term, the oversupply dynamic is unlikely to change unless high-cost capacity exits substantially or inventories are significantly reduced. However, the continuous expansion of low-cost capacity will drive down overall costs, maintaining downward pressure on soda ash prices.
Overall, the imbalance between supply and demand in the soda ash industry is expected to persist in 2026, with price pressures and widening losses becoming the norm. Industry adjustment and capacity rationalization will be the core themes of the year.