**Spot prices of hydrogen fluoride (HF) trend upward amid scattered transactions; can fluorite rally again?**

Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) continues to exhibit regional supply tightness. This is driven not only by the delayed restart of large-scale capacity but also by manufacturers accepting orders beyond their production capabilities, resulting in bottlenecks in production and loading operations. Consequently, spot prices for loose cargo have surged again, challenging recent regional highs.

Supply Gap Persists; Maintenance Deepens Tightness

Table 1: Operating Status of Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride Plants in Northern China

In September, the capacity utilization rate on the supply side in the northern market declined again. Major northern producers have yet to signal a restart, establishing a premise of tight supply with a monthly deficit of approximately 20,000 tons. Furthermore, many hydrogen fluoride production units in the northern region are aging facilities that have suffered long-term corrosion from process media. Beyond scheduled annual major overhauls, the probability of unplanned shutdowns due to technical faults remains relatively high. At the beginning of the month, bullish sentiment in the fluorite market led to concentrated maintenance activities, directly compressing effective output. This reduced operating rates in the north, deepening the tight spot supply landscape and providing support for market prices.

Persistent Profit Inversion; Raw Material Costs Remain High

Figure 1: Cost-Profit Trend of Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride, 2025–2026 (Unit: RMB/ton)
(Data Source: Chempricehub)

In recent years, the domestic AHF market has been trapped in a bidirectional pressure environment. Upstream raw material prices, including fluorite and sulfuric acid, have fluctuated and risen repeatedly, continuously squeezing producer margins. Simultaneously, the mainstream downstream refrigerant industry maintains strong cost-reduction demands, rigidly suppressing procurement prices. As a result, the entire hydrogen fluoride industry has long remained in a state of profit inversion or thin margins. Although some plants pursuing differentiated strategies achieve可观 profits, the industry as a whole still suffers from inverted or marginal profitability. Therefore, under conditions of regional supply tightness, when downstream mandatory restocking and trader sourcing demands are released simultaneously, limited loose-cargo supplies cannot meet the incremental market demand. Fueled by panic buying and restocking expectations, offer prices rose rapidly, leading to an upward trend within the price range. Overall, the core driver of the AHF market is not a massive imbalance in aggregate supply and demand, but rather an industrial structure where long-term contracts stabilize the baseline while scarce spot cargo amplifies price elasticity.

Long-Term Demand Turns Bearish; Market Sentiment Tugs-of-War

The sharp rise in AHF spot prices for loose cargo has boosted confidence among fluorite traders to some extent. However, most market participants remain bearish on future prospects. This year’s refrigerant demand season ended prematurely due to climate factors, marking an early conclusion to the traditional peak season. Domestic downstream consumption weakened, compounded by persistent negative signals from export markets, creating dual pressure from both domestic and international demand. Additionally, refrigerant inventories remain at high levels, with actual digestion expected toward year-end. Meanwhile, sulfuric acid prices have dropped significantly in the short term, offering fluorite traders some room to push prices up. However, downstream buyers maintain a price-suppressing stance. Downstream inventory levels vary, with many enterprises seeking winter stockpiling. Nevertheless, traders generally report continuous inflows of external sources, such as those from Mongolia, keeping downstream demand enterprises’ sentiment relatively stable.

Some northern holders believe that although external supply inflows are substantial, increased penetration of "north-to-south" logistics will lead to ideal absorption of local inventory. However, in reality, northern cargo often has higher arsenic content. Given current sensitive market conditions, whether regarding product quality or transportation cycles, downstream caution and wait-and-see attitudes prevail. Actual inter-regional transfer volumes are estimated to be under 10,000 tons. Consequently, the fluorite market faces difficulty in rising or falling significantly and is likely to maintain a stable trajectory in the short term.