Stable Fundamental Support Keeps Toluene Prices Firm (2026-09-20)

1. Today's Summary

1. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (October contract) closed at $100.30/barrel, down $1.61/barrel (-1.58% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $103.87/barrel, down $0.95/barrel (-0.91% WoW).
2. Production and sales status of gasoline in Shandong.
3. Smooth shipments from Shandong refineries for toluene.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Toluene Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

On Saturday, Shandong refineries lowered their posted prices to facilitate shipments, achieving a production-sales ratio exceeding 100%. On Sunday, the toluene market opened flat but trended lower, with some intraday fluctuations driven by movements in related products in peripheral markets. Shandong refineries saw premiums in auction transactions, maintaining balanced production and sales, while downstream chemical and gasoline industries continued stable purchasing. In Jiangsu, trading was primarily conducted via paper swaps, with price volatility significantly influenced by neighboring regions. In Guangdong, downstream buyers entered the market, leading to smooth refinery shipments and premium-priced auction transactions.

3. Price Forecast

In the short term, solid bottom support persists, and downstream end-user purchasing has shown some follow-through, suggesting that the toluene market will continue to oscillate on a slightly strong trend. Given the generally decent trading sentiment, some refineries are expected to raise their posted prices.

4. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Toluene Data Overview (Unit: 10k tons)