Stalemate in Supply and Demand; Market Prices Consolidate on a Weak Trend (September 25–30, 2026)

1. Key Highlights of the Week:

① High prices for crude oil and naphtha provided cost support to the market, resulting in low willingness among sellers to offer discounts.

② Domestic production units largely maintained stable operations, alleviating the tight spot supply situation.

③ Downstream demand recovery still requires time, with limited willingness to purchase at high prices.

2. Market Overview for This Period:

During this period, domestic butadiene prices trended slightly weaker. Although some downstream enterprises engaged in essential restocking ahead of the upcoming holiday, and high crude oil prices provided cost support—thereby encouraging traders to maintain firm quotations and resist lowering prices—the restart of domestic production units led to increased output. Meanwhile, the slow recovery in downstream demand resulted in moderate purchasing interest, creating significant resistance to transactions at higher price levels. This pressured some traders to lower their quotes, leading to a generally weak market trend. As of September 30, 2026, delivered prices in the Shandong Central region ranged from 13,650 to 13,750 CNY/ton, while ex-tank self-pickup prices in East China were referenced at 13,400 CNY/ton.

3. Butadiene and Related Product Price List (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

4. Outlook for Next Period:

It is expected that domestic butadiene prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. With the approach of the National Day holiday, some downstream enterprises may complete their essential restocking beforehand. However, overall purchasing willingness remains cautious. While high crude oil prices provide cost support, limiting significant declines, the gradual increase in domestic supply and slow demand recovery will cap upward momentum. Traders are advised to monitor changes in plant operating rates and downstream procurement rhythms closely.