Strong cost support drives a rebound in the spot market after an initial decline

1. Today's Summary

① Raw material prices for propylene and synthetic ammonia rose significantly.
② Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520,000-ton/year acrylonitrile plant resumed operation at 90% capacity utilization in late September.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Acrylonitrile Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Based on the ex-tank price at East China ports, today’s closing price for acrylonitrile remained flat at 11,100 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day. High production costs combined with weak supply-demand dynamics have led to cautious market expectations, resulting in limited fluctuation in negotiations.

Regarding production costs, the theoretical calculation for acrylonitrile production cost today is: 1.05 * Propylene + 0.5 * Liquid Ammonia + 800 = 12,699 CNY/ton, an increase of 491 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, driven by the significant rise in propylene prices.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the industry capacity utilization rate for acrylonitrile reached 75.3%, with a daily output of 12,846 tons. The current total installed capacity base stands at 5.681 million tons/year.

4. Price Forecast

The domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to see upward movement. Cost-side pressure has intensified, leading suppliers to attempt price support and push increases. Additionally, some essential demand restocking following the holiday has improved market negotiation sentiment. However, the short-term supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting the potential for a market rebound.

5. Related Product Updates

Propylene Market: Propylene prices in Shandong trended stronger today, with mainstream closing references between 9,980–10,170 CNY/ton (average 10,075 CNY/ton), up 335 CNY/ton from the previous business day. Strong performance in futures markets, combined with news of localized plant shutdowns, boosted trading sentiment. Overall inventory levels among propylene producers remain manageable, with offers mostly seeing slight upward adjustments. Downstream buyers entered the market actively, with notable premiums in auction transactions driving up the transaction center of gravity.

Downstream Operating Rates: The ABS industry operating rate is around 55% (total capacity: 11.19 million tons/year); the acrylic fiber industry operating rate is around 70% (total capacity base: 860,000 tons/year); the acrylamide industry operating rate is around 55%.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Acrylonitrile Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)