Strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails; cost support softens amid conflicting demand signals (Sept 16, 2026)

1. Today's Summary

① Sentiment in the domestic fluorspar market remains cautious, with limited upside potential. The mainstream reference price for 97% wet fluorspar powder is 3,300–3,850 CNY/ton.

② Downstream anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) mainstream contract prices for September are tentatively referenced at 15,050–15,200 CNY/ton, while spot market prices range from 15,500 to 16,000 CNY/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Fluorspar Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Today, the domestic market for 97% fluorspar concentrate remained firm at high levels. Trading activity is currently subdued, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among participants. Some suppliers completed inventory transactions early in the month, releasing all available stock into the market. Their primary concern is a significant drop in downstream demand in the coming period. However, some participants remain bullish on the outlook, supported by two factors: first, the rising transaction center for spot hydrogen fluoride orders; and second, the expectation of downstream factory resumption of operations, which suggests procurement volumes will increase compared to previous periods. Current delivered spot price references by region are as follows: Inner Mongolia 3,300–3,400 CNY/ton; Zhejiang 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian 3,700–3,800 CNY/ton; Shandong 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Northwest China 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton; Henan and Anhui 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic 97% wet fluorspar powder is referenced at 3,300–3,800 CNY/ton.

3. Production Dynamics

The monthly capacity utilization rate for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in August was 56%.

4. Price Forecast

Momentum for price increases in the fluorspar market is strong, but further upside space is limited. The anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market continues to receive robust support from costs.

5. Related Product Status

Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride (AHF) Market:
Sentiment in today’s domestic AHF market remains cautious. With tender pricing approaching, wait-and-see attitudes are prevalent, and participant sentiment is generally bearish. On the raw material side, sulfuric acid prices have continued to decline throughout the month, and easing international conditions have further dampened optimism. Meanwhile, the fluorspar market is at a high level with insufficient room for further price hikes. Additionally, terminal production plans continue to shrink, and downstream inventories remain high. Downstream enterprises are expected to conduct batch maintenance shutdowns to reduce inventory, leading to weaker absorption capacity compared to previous periods. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic AHF in September is referenced at 15,050–15,200 CNY/ton, while spot market prices range from 15,500 to 16,000 CNY/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:
Today, the Chempricehub index for 98% sulfuric acid stood at 1,400 CNY/ton, unchanged from yesterday and consistent with morning expectations. The domestic sulfuric acid market maintained a weak trend, with Yunnan continuing its downward adjustment. While local acid plants have maintained stable production recently, sustained declines in external regional prices have led to a noticeable contraction in out-of-province orders, weakening export support. Last week, acid plants in Honghe Prefecture took the lead by cutting prices by 50 CNY/ton, shifting the regional transaction center downward. Today, major local producers followed suit with a 100 CNY/ton reduction, while Honghe plants cut prices again by 90 CNY/ton, intensifying downward pressure on regional prices. In Hebei, trading activity was sluggish with slow shipment rates. Low-priced goods from Henan continued to impact the local market, prompting some downstream customers to shift to peripheral sourcing, thereby diverting sales volume away from Hebei producers. Increased inflows of low-priced supplies from outside the region further constrained local companies' shipping capabilities, heightening market caution and putting pressure on negotiated transaction prices. Overall, the national sulfuric acid market remains weak, and short-term trends are likely to continue this sluggish pattern.

Refrigerants:
Based on the bulk liquid market in East China, quotes from major fluorocarbon R134a producers remained firm, largely aligning with morning market expectations. As of press time, quotes from mainstream large-scale producers in East China referenced 65,000–70,000 CNY/ton (coordinated for both domestic and export markets), while mainstream market quotes ranged from 63,500 to 65,000 CNY/ton (ex-factory, tax-inclusive), also consistent with morning forecasts. Market intelligence indicates that mainstream plant quotes for R134a in East China remain firmly high. Contract negotiations with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are progressing at elevated levels. Low-cost channel inventories have been largely cleared, and quota surpluses at smaller tail-end factories are minimal, pushing the overall transaction center upward. According to automotive industry statistics, new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 60.6% of total new vehicle sales in August. In August 2026, NEV production and sales reached 1.653 million and 1.643 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 18.9% and 17.8%, respectively. This reinforces the dominant position of NEVs, with their monthly sales share hitting a new record high. News reports indicate that the fluorocarbon refrigerant market continues to adhere to the "anti-involution" policy, with rigid quota supply remaining tight. Both domestic and export quotes remain synergistically high and firm. Chempricehub predicts that mainstream large-scale producers in East China will maintain firm quotes, and the short-term R134a market will likely consolidate at high levels.