I. Key Points
Core Logic: Recent market movements have been heavily influenced by pure benzene, maintaining cost support. Supply reductions have been relatively significant recently; however, due to the National Day holiday factor, port inventories may see some accumulation.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 28 | Sep 29 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 105.28 | 102.59 | -2.69 |
| Ethylene | CFR Northeast Asia | 1180 | 1160 | -20 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 10510 | 11325 | +815 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 10335 | 10700 | +365 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units: Brent Crude Oil: USD/barrel; CFR Northeast Asia Ethylene: USD/ton; Pure Benzene & Styrene: CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for Pure Benzene and Styrene represent the closing average of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot exchange rates inclusive of tax. | ||||
| 4. Change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
Styrene: Recent market trends have been significantly influenced by pure benzene, providing ongoing cost support. Planned maintenance at the Lianyungang plant, along with unplanned shutdowns or reduced loads at Xinyang, Haoyuan, Junchen, and Liuhuayi facilities, has strengthened expectations of industry-wide supply reduction. However, negative feedback on downstream profits has led to weak price acceptance. While cost support remains and recent supply cuts have been substantial, the impact of the upcoming National Day holiday may lead to some inventory accumulation at ports. Styrene prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels before the holiday, with a possibility of slight declines not ruled out.
IV. Data Table
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory | 4.16 | 4.18 | +0.02 | ↗ |
| South China Port Inventory | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 66.26% | 63.29 | -2.97 | ↘ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 12.98 | 12.7 | -0.28 | ↗ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Inventory units are in ten thousand tons. | ||||
| 2. Styrene port inventory data is released weekly. |
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