Lead: Due to the tight spot supply of industrial C10 heavy aromatics, the operating rate of durene plants using the C10 method remains low. Meanwhile, downstream market participants maintain only essential procurement of raw materials, showing negative sentiment toward high-price negotiations. As supply-demand tensions intensify, whether prices can sustain their high levels has become a key market focus.
1. Durene Plant Operating Rates Remain Low
According to Chempricehub, as of late July, several reforming units, including those at Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Fuhaichuang, are under maintenance. Previously shut-down units, such as those at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhongjin Petrochemical, have yet to restart. Meanwhile, Jinling Petrochemical has no current plans to release industrial C10 heavy aromatics externally. Refineries including Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Shanghai Petrochemical have reduced their external supply by nearly half compared to June. Consequently, the spot supply of industrial C10 heavy aromatics remains tight. Affected by this reduced external supply, the operating rate of domestic durene plants using the C10 method stays low, at only around 19.49%.
2. Durene Market Prices Maintain High Levels
As a result, market participants in the durene sector hold a strong price-supportive stance, with mainstream prices ranging from 14,000 to 15,000 RMB/ton. However, downstream crude anhydride and PMDA plants also operate at low rates, making high-end transactions difficult. According to Chempricehub, the operating rates of downstream crude anhydride and PMDA plants are low, with manufacturers primarily consuming existing inventories and maintaining only essential procurement of raw durene. Additionally, Hualun New Materials' 20,000-ton-per-year durene plant is scheduled to start operations at the end of this month, leading to a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the crude anhydride and PMDA markets. Inquiry activities for raw durene are sluggish, further suppressing market transactions.
3. Supply-Demand Tensions Intensify, Further Significant Price Hikes for Durene Face Headwinds
Looking ahead, the supply of domestic industrial C10 heavy aromatics is expected to remain tight until at least the first half of August. It is understood that cutting plants in East China are actively seeking feedstocks from Northeast China to fill the regional supply gap. Furthermore, synthetic durene plants have also opted to control volumes to support prices. Therefore, the sentiment supporting and pushing up durene prices remains strong. However, the crude anhydride and PMDA markets are still delivering on previously placed orders, while new deal negotiations are sluggish. In particular, low operating rates at these downstream plants limit their purchasing of raw durene.
Moreover, even if crude anhydride and PMDA manufacturers require raw material replenishment, they remain cautious due to bearish factors such as the potential market pressure from new PMDA capacity starting operations and concerns that prices may correct from current highs. In summary, the domestic durene market lacks the momentum for another substantial price hike, yet a significant price correction is also difficult. Amid the supply-demand standoff, market negotiations remain deadlocked. Key factors that will influence durene price movements include crude oil futures trends, changes in the supply of industrial C10 heavy aromatics, and transaction conditions in the crude anhydride and PMDA markets.
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