Supportive Factors Persist, Ethylene Oxide Prices Remain at High Levels (September 14, 2026)

1. Daily Summary

1. Sep 11: Although tensions in the Middle East persist, diplomatic efforts by multiple parties to ease risks have led to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (October contract) fell USD 2.43/bbl to USD 100.05/bbl (-2.37% DoD); ICE Brent futures (November contract) dropped USD 3.02/bbl to USD 104.61/bbl (-2.81% DoD). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2610) rose CNY 41.5 to CNY 809.9/bbl; the night session increased by CNY 40.2 to CNY 850.1/bbl.

2. Sep 11: The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene spot price (USD basis) stood at USD 1,150/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Domestic ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable at high levels today. On the supply side, monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices continued to hold at highs, prompting co-production units to prioritize MEG output; thus, the shortage of EO spot supply within the market has not yet eased. Major downstream industries showed decent performance, maintaining steady consumption. On the cost side, available spot ethylene was tight; however, expectations for reduced operating rates and shutdowns in styrene-based derivatives persisted, leading to decreased mandatory buying demand. Consequently, momentum for further price increases weakened today, with transactions for high-priced cargo under pressure, although cost support remains intact. Overall, short-term supply and cost factors continue to provide support, suggesting prices may maintain their high-level trend. Attention should be paid to upstream and downstream developments going forward.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 51.53%. As of the last trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced via imported ethylene procurement was CNY 1,231.57/ton, an increase driven by rising EO prices. The theoretical profit for EO produced via domestic ethylene procurement was CNY 962.5/ton today, up CNY 75/ton compared to the previous period, primarily due to falling ethylene prices.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain firm at high levels, with potential for slight upward testing in the short term. Supply-wise, sustained high MEG prices encourage co-production units to favor MEG, keeping EO spot supply tight without immediate relief. Downstream major industries are performing reasonably well with steady consumption. Cost-wise, while spot ethylene availability is tight, ongoing expectations of load reductions and shutdowns for styrene derivatives have dampened essential buying demand. This limits the impetus for further price hikes, pressuring transactions for high-priced goods, though cost support persists. In summary, short-term supply and cost factors offer support, likely keeping prices at elevated levels; future movements depend on upstream and downstream dynamics.

5. Related Product Updates

① Ethylene (Feedstock): Today, East China ethylene prices softened slightly from highs, with mainstream negotiated prices ranging between CNY 9,200–9,300/ton. While available spot inventory in East China remained tight, expectations of reduced loads and shutdowns for styrene derivatives led to lower essential buying demand. Consequently, momentum for price increases stalled, and transactions for high-priced cargo faced pressure.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Key Downstream): In the afternoon, East China polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices held steady compared to morning levels. EPEG ranged from CNY 11,000–11,200/ton, HPEG from CNY 11,100–11,300/ton, and TPEG from CNY 11,100–11,300/ton. With EO feedstock prices remaining stable at highs, cost support bolstered the market. Tight spot supply of monomers prompted holders to moderately push prices higher, but downstream buyers were cautious about chasing highs. Trading activity consisted mainly of small lots, with actual transactions determined through negotiation based on volume.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Despite frequent geopolitical shifts, the tight supply landscape for MEG persists. Therefore, although the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, it remains in an uptrend. Tomorrow’s East China spot ex-tank prices are projected to range between CNY 6,800–7,000/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)