The acrylic acid market is currently in a state of "stalemate between rising and falling." As of January 12, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on Business Society was 5,866.67 yuan per ton, representing a slight increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month (5,850.00 yuan per ton).

Cost Side: The price of propylene, the primary raw material, has remained relatively firm against the backdrop of winter demand and fluctuating international oil prices. As of January 12, the benchmark price of propylene on Business Society was 5,871.00 yuan per ton, up 2.68% from the beginning of the month (5,717.67 yuan per ton). This has established a cost floor for acrylic acid. Producer profit margins have been compressed, reducing their willingness to initiate price reductions.

Supply Side: Although 2025-2026 is a period for commissioning new domestic acrylic acid capacities, unplanned or extended maintenance shutdowns at some major plants since the beginning of the year have offset part of the supply increase from new capacities. Overall industry operating rates are maintained in the 75%-80% range, with inventory levels at a medium position, not creating significant pressure.

Demand Side: January and February are the traditional off-season for downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives, with procurement primarily driven by rigid demand. The recovery in end-consumer markets (e.g., real estate, textiles, and apparel) has been slow. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a strategy of "procuring as needed and maintaining low inventories," with rare instances of large-scale stockpiling. This has restrained upward price momentum but also means the market has not accumulated significant speculative inventory risks. Overseas demand (particularly in Southeast Asia) has shown some resilience, providing an outlet for domestic supply and mitigating the full impact of potential overcapacity.

How long can this "stable" state last?
The current weak balance is fragile and is expected to be broken by the end of Q1 or early Q2 2026. Key variables to watch include:

1. Strength and Pace of Demand Recovery
   After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season stocking period ("Golden March, Silver April"). If real estate policies show effects and consumer markets rebound, driving stronger-than-expected demand for butyl acrylate (for coatings) and superabsorbent polymers (SAP, for hygiene products), the market could rapidly destock, potentially leading to an upward price breakout. Conversely, if peak season demand disappoints, the market could lose support due to pessimistic sentiment.

2. Variables on the Supply Side
   After Q1, previously idled units will gradually resume operations, and output from new capacities will become more substantial. Supply pressure is expected to increase significantly in Q2. If prolonged price stagnation continues to erode industry profits, some high-cost units may be forced to reduce operating rates or shut down, thereby adjusting supply again.

3. Macro and Cost Environment
   Trends in international energy prices will directly reshape the cost structure. A sustained rise or fall in crude oil prices could disrupt the current cost-side equilibrium. The actual implementation and effectiveness of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption will determine the fundamental direction of end-user demand.

Conclusion:
The current "stable" state of the acrylic acid market represents a dynamic yet fragile balance, unlikely to persist beyond Q1 2026. Q2 will be a critical period for directional movement, with trends highly dependent on the interplay between actual demand performance during the "traditional peak season" and incremental supply increases. For market participants, excessive expectations for a one-sided market trend are currently unwarranted. Flexible operations and strict inventory control remain the preferred strategies, while preparing for potential trending market conditions that may emerge in Q2.