Introduction: The ethanol market maintains a supply-demand balance characterized by oversupply, with the supply-demand gap remaining positive. Declining production temporarily alleviates earlier inventory pressure on the market. The cumulative supply-demand gap shows a negative value, and the supply-demand balance gap is expected to decrease in the next period.

| Indicator | June | May | Change | Change % | Next Period Forecast | Change | Change % |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Inventory (10,000 tons) | 8.50 | 4.41 | 4.09 | 92.74% | 2.94 | -5.56 | -65.41% |
| Production Margin (Heilongjiang Corn) | -314.02 | -207.76 | -106.26 | 51.15% | -200.00 | 114.02 | -36.31% |
| Domestic Production (10,000 tons) | 76.60 | 90.66 | -14.06 | -15.51% | 85.00 | 8.40 | 10.97% |
| Capacity Utilization | 45.10% | 53.38% | -0.08 | -15.51% | 50.00% | 0.05 | 10.86% |
| Import Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 1600.00% | 0.01 | -0.16 | -94.12% |
| Export Volume (10,000 tons) | 2.13 | 0.15 | 1.98 | 1320.00% | 1.00 | -1.13 | -53.05% |

Supply: On the supply side, fermentation ethanol for consumption: National operating rates declined this month. Bio-fermentation ethanol operating rates decreased, and coal-to-ethanol operating rates also declined.

For bio-fermentation ethanol, operating rates in the Northeast region fell. Hongzhan Bayan unit resumed production in late June, and the Laha unit also resumed production. SDIC Jidong unit resumed operations in late June. SDIC Tieling unit shut down in mid-June. Hailun unit remained shut down. Wanli unit shut down on June 23. Jilin Xintianlong unit shut down at the beginning of the month and resumed production in mid-to-late June. Jilin Dongfenghualiang unit remained shut down. Inner Mongolia Zhalantun unit shut down. Chifeng Ruiyang unit shut down. Operating rates in East China declined. COFCO Anhui saw decreased operating rates with two lines undergoing rotational inspections. Anhui Wanshen operated normally. In the Mengzhou area of Henan, Huaxing and Hanyong units remained stable, Houyuan unit resumed production after a brief shutdown, and Xinxiang unit shut down. Operating rates in Guangxi declined. COFCO Guangxi unit shut down, Guangxi Jinyuan unit shut down, Guangxi Xintiande operated normally, and all molasses ethanol units have shut down. Coal-to-ethanol supply declined this month. Shandong Hengxin and Yushen Energy Chemical units shut down, with the Yushen Energy Chemical unit resuming production around the end of the month. Anhui Carbon Xin unit operated normally, Henan Liyuan unit operated normally, Henan Ruibai produced primarily for internal use, Yulin Kaiyue unit operated normally, Yanchang Xinghua unit operated at 30%, Xinjiang Tianye unit operated normally, Baling Petrochemical unit operated normally, Jingmen Yuanhan unit operated normally, and Huizhou Yuxin unit operated normally.

Demand: On the demand side, liquor demand declined this month. The operating rate for the chemical ethyl acetate industry decreased in June. Yankuang unit shut down with a delayed restart, and operations were unstable after restarting. Ningxia Ruiyuan unit shut down. Zhuhai Qianxin had a brief 10-day shutdown. The operating rate for ethyl methyl carbonate declined. Lihuayi unit shut down, Shida (Hubei) unit shut down. Aldehyde factories maintained normal operating loads. Demand from major oil companies and refineries was average.

Summary of Ethanol Unit Turnarounds in June 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Producer | Unit Type | Capacity | Start Date | End Date |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| COFCO Anhui | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| COFCO Anhui | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/8 | 2026/6/15 |
| Hongzhan Laha | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/6/22 |
| Hongzhan Bayan | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/6/22 |
| Guannan Xinguan | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Zhalantun | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/6/1 | |
| Chifeng Ruiyang | Fermentation Ethanol | 6.00 | 2026/6/18 | Approx. 40 days |
| Lianyungang Longhe | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Dongfenghualiang | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2026/4/30 | |
| Xintianlong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/6/16 |
| SDIC Jidong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/5/15 | 2026/6/18 |
| SDIC Hailun | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/9 | |
| SDIC Tieling | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Xinxiang Xinxing Bio | Fermentation Ethanol | 8.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Sichuan Hongzhan | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Heilongjiang Shenglong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | Around end of June | Approx. 2 months |
| Wanli Runda | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/23 | |
| COFCO Zhaodong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | 2026/6/28 |
| COFCO Guangxi | Fermentation Ethanol | 20.00 | 2026/6/8 | 2026/6/30 |
| Shandong Hengxin | Coal-to-Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/5 | 2026/7/5 |
| Yushen Energy Chem | Coal-to-Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/5 | 2026/6/25 |
| Total | | 564.00 | -- | -- |

During the month, ethanol units with a combined annual processing capacity of 5.64 million tons were shut down. This month, Heilongjiang Hongzhan Bayan and Laha units resumed production. SDIC Jidong unit resumed operations in late June. Tieling unit shut down in mid-June. Hailun remained shut down. Wanli unit shut down on June 23. Jilin Xintianlong unit shut down at the beginning of the month and resumed production in mid-to-late June. Jilin Dongfenghualiang unit remained shut down. Inner Mongolia Zhalantun unit shut down. Chifeng Ruiyang unit shut down. COFCO Anhui fuel ethanol production decreased, with one line in Suzhou and Bengbu shut down. Guannan Xinguan unit shut down. Lianyungang Longhe unit shut down. Among the three factories in Henan, Hanyong unit had a brief shutdown, other units operated normally, and Xinxiang unit shut down. For coal-to-ethanol, Yushen continued operating at low load. Jingmen Yuanhan, Baling Petrochemical, and Henan Ruibai units operated normally. Anhui Carbon Xin unit resumed production after a one-week shutdown.

Planned Ethanol Unit Turnarounds for the Next Month (Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Producer | Unit Type | Capacity | Start Date | End Date |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| COFCO Anhui | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Guannan Xinguan | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Zhalantun | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/6/1 | |
| Lianyungang Longhe | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Dongfenghualiang | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2026/4/30 | |
| SDIC Hailun | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/9 | |
| SDIC Tieling | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Xinxiang Xinxing Bio | Fermentation Ethanol | 8.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Sichuan Hongzhan | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Heilongjiang Shenglong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | Around end of June | Approx. 45 days |
| Wanli Runda | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/23 | Approx. 40 days |
| COFCO Zhaodong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | 2026/6/28 |
| Jilin Fukang | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/7/10 | |
| Jilin Yushu | Fermentation Ethanol | 17.00 | Expected July | |
| COFCO Guangxi | Fermentation Ethanol | 20.00 | 2026/6/8 | Expected end of month |
| Xinjiang Tianye | Coal-to-Ethanol | 25.00 | Expected July | |
| Shandong Hengxin | Coal-to-Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/5 | 2026/7/5 |
| Total | | 480.00 | -- | -- |

As of the writing date, Chempricehub statistics indicate that 17 units will remain shut down continuously over the next month, involving a combined annual processing capacity of 4.80 million tons.