According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, from January 4th to 9th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5,430 yuan per ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.35% and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. The domestic ethanol market experienced a dual increase in both supply and demand. The cost of fermentation ethanol remained high, limiting the upward potential. Terminal demand showed improvement, and short-term cost advantages persisted. However, with the destocking environment in major production areas, the market is expected to trend toward stable but slightly weaker operations in the future.

From the cost perspective, the overall price of corn continued to rise. The price increase at northern ports stimulated arrivals, and futures prices also rose. Production areas followed the trend of northern ports and futures, with increases ranging from 10 to 30 yuan per ton. However, grain supply at collection points remained limited, and farmers' willingness to sell grain remained generally low. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, Heilongjiang Hongzhan reduced its edible ethanol load, while Zhongke Gelin resumed production. Shenglong's facilities operated normally, Wanli's fuel ethanol production decreased, Jilin Dongfeng continued production, Fukang's third and fourth production lines were operational while the second line was shut down, Yushu's facilities remained in production, Xintianlong reduced output, Inner Mongolia Baiyecheng's facilities operated normally, Henan Houyuan and Hanyong continued production, and Huaxing operated normally. Sichuan Hongzhan, Shandong Qufeng, and Huating in East China maintained production. Longhe and Guannan Xinguan halted operations, while Luomaite, Anhui Wanshen, and COFCO Fuel continued production. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream ethyl acetate production saw Yanzhuang Luneng's facilities recover after a load reduction, Henan's facilities increased their load, and Guangxi Jinyuan's facilities were shut down. The capacity utilization rate of ethyl acetate showed a slight increase. The demand side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In summary, Business Society's ethanol analyst predicts that the short-term ethanol market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.