I. Price Trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society: On January 30, 2025, the average price was 1,391 yuan/ton. Currently, coking enterprises are operating weakly, with high inventory levels, ample overall market supply, and limited recovery in steel mill profits.
II. Market Analysis
Price Performance:
- On January 30, the price of metallurgical coke in the Jingdezhen market remained stable. First-grade metallurgical coke was quoted at 1,815 yuan/ton, and quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke at 1,725 yuan/ton, both ex-factory prices including tax on an acceptance basis.
- On January 30, the price of metallurgical coke in the Yichun market remained stable. Quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton, and second-grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, both ex-factory prices including tax on an acceptance basis.
- On January 30, the price of metallurgical coke in the Jinzhong market remained stable. Quasi-first-grade wet-quenched metallurgical coke was quoted at 1,260–1,280 yuan/ton, quasi-first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke at 1,525–1,550 yuan/ton, and first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke at 1,525–1,675 yuan/ton, all ex-factory prices including tax on a cash basis.
Demand Side:
- Weak Demand: The steel industry has entered a "plateau period." The long-term structural downturn in the real estate sector has led to sluggish demand for construction steel, dragging down coke demand.
- Rigid Demand: China's massive steel production volume (approximately 1 billion tons of crude steel and 800 million tons of pig iron annually) determines its absolute demand for coke, forming a solid demand base.
Supply Side:
- Capacity Changes: Net new capacity additions are approximately 8.72 million tons in 2025 and 9.76 million tons in 2024, with continuous capacity expansion.
- Operating Rate: In January 2026, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.72%, a slight year-on-year increase. In October 2025, it was 72.55%, maintaining a low level of capacity utilization.
- Production: Daily production in January 2026 was 627,200 tons, compared to 634,500 tons in October 2025, indicating ample supply.
III. Future Outlook
Business Society coke analysts believe: In the short term, coke prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with a weak bias, lacking upward momentum.
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