The MMA market ended on a subdued note in late May, with a lack of buying momentum from downstream sectors. Entering June, the market is in a demand off-season, making it difficult for downstream demand to see substantial improvement. However, due to maintenance at some MMA plants, the market saw limited overall fluctuations amid the tug-of-war. As of June 1, the reference price in East China was 12,300-12,400 yuan/ton.

I. Domestic MMA capacity utilization further declines this week, remaining below 60%

As of June 1, the domestic MMA market maintained a low-level consolidation trend. The Shandong market showed slight easing, while the East China and South China markets remained stable. Negotiations in East China were in the range of 12,300-12,400 yuan/ton, and the South China market was around 12,800-13,200 yuan/ton, down slightly from the end of May. Limited price fluctuations were the result of multiple factors. This week, plant capacity utilization further decreased, estimated at 57%. On the supply side, spot pressure was limited, and holders had little intention of deep price cuts. However, demand and recent export orders were subdued, and the cost center moved downward, leading to weak market confidence.

II. Downstream prices trend downward; cost transmission varies

In May, the trends of MMA and various downstream products all showed declines to different extents. The mainstream price of MMA in East China at the end of May was 12,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton or 1.98% from 12,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Among them, PMMA pellets, ACR, and pure acrylic latex fell by 1,900 yuan/ton, 650 yuan/ton, and 700 yuan/ton respectively from the beginning to the end of the month, with declines of 10.98%, 4.36%, and 8.97%. From the price changes from the beginning to the end of the month, PMMA pellets saw the largest decline, followed by pure acrylic latex and ACR. It can be seen that the decline in downstream PMMA pellets was relatively larger than other downstream products. The downward drag from the cost side was one factor affecting price changes, while the supply-demand relationship of PMMA pellets was the fundamental factor.

From the perspective of monthly average price changes, the monthly average price of MMA in East China dropped by 1,504 yuan/ton to 12,563 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.69%. PMMA pellets fell by 1,242 yuan/ton to 16,405 yuan/ton, down 7.04%. ACR dropped by 2,697 yuan/ton to 14,729 yuan/ton, a decline of 15.48%. Pure acrylic latex decreased by 862 yuan/ton to 7,295 yuan/ton, down 10.57%. Except for pure acrylic latex, the monthly average prices of MMA, downstream PMMA pellets, and ACR all fell by more than 1,000 yuan/ton, with ACR experiencing the largest decline. For PMMA pellets, due to a slightly higher starting price, although the drop exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton, the percentage decline was less than 10%. However, overall, MMA and its downstream products were all in a downtrend without exception.

III. Recent cost side slightly declined but still provides some support

The average cost of the two MMA processes in May changed little compared with April. Among them, the monthly average cost of the ACH method and C4 method increased by 11.87% and 6.12% respectively, still providing some cost support. Starting from the last week of May, the costs of both MMA processes declined, easing the cost pressure.

IV. Multiple factors intertwine; short-term market fluctuations limited

In the short term, some MMA plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with capacity utilization below 60%. With limited inventory pressure, the supply side offers some support, and there is no intention of deep price cuts in the short term. Barring unforeseen circumstances, supply is expected to gradually recover from mid-to-late June. On the demand side, downstream sectors are in a demand off-season, with little room for improvement in domestic demand, and export support is insufficient in the short term. With both positive and negative factors coexisting, the market is expected to remain relatively firm with limited fluctuations in the short term due to the lack of supply pressure. The market in mid-to-late June will depend on changes in supply and demand, and the monthly average price is likely to decline.