【Introduction】The fluorite market is experiencing overall weakness. The initial firmness and price-supporting sentiment on the supply side have softened compared to the early stages of downstream pricing. Currently, both supply and demand sides of fluorite are cautiously observing the trajectory of sulfuric acid, yet remain unable to counteract its market pressure. Consequently, fluorite's initial strong upward momentum has shifted to a phase of weak consolidation, reflecting a change in overall market sentiment.

Strong Sulfuric Acid Market Dominates, Undermining Fluorite Price Support Confidence

The sulfuric acid market continues its upward price trend across multiple regions. Cost-side support remains robust, with sulfur and pyrite maintaining high levels, providing strong cost backing. Supply remains tight, as enterprises undergoing earlier maintenance have not fully resumed production, sustaining the supply shortage. Demand shows divergence: downstream sectors like phosphate fertilizers, facing significant cost pressures, maintain cautious procurement; the chemical industry continues with essential restocking; while the new energy sector shows decent demand. Overall trading activity is favorable. Against this backdrop, sulfuric acid prices in many regions increased again this week, with hikes mostly ranging from 100 to 300 RMB/ton. In summary, driven by both cost and supply-demand dynamics, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to maintain high levels with firm prices in the short term.

The strong upward movement of the sulfuric acid market has significantly impacted the sentiment of fluorite industry participants. Mining companies, processing plants, and fluorite purchasers alike have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Complex international conditions are affecting the flow and transportation of bulk commodities, increasing pressure on downstream industries reliant on imports. Meanwhile, shifts in demand and capital priorities of consuming enterprises have transformed fluorite from a primary market driver to a passively pressured component.

Severe Cost Squeeze on Profits Disrupts Downstream Production

The mainstream downstream market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) is currently under considerable strain. Facing the high pressure from the sulfuric acid market, producers intend to alleviate cost pressures. However, given AHF's relatively weak bargaining power within the industrial chain, the majority of its supply is committed to downstream refrigerant manufacturers under contract. This leaves only a small volume of spot material available. With profits severely squeezed, some producers face supply difficulties and have had to adjust operating rates. Consequently, a strong price increase sentiment prevails in the spot market, with companies significantly raising their offer levels. Yet, these increases are insufficient to cover losses. The limited remaining spot material often faces an awkward situation of "high prices with no market," as elevated offers deter downstream buyers from making small, planned purchases. Downstream enterprises, already facing production disruptions due to rising costs of multiple raw materials, contribute to a market atmosphere characterized by high tension but weak supply and demand.

Fluorite Sentiment Weakens, Demand Decline Accelerates

Since the post-holiday period, activity in the fluorite market has been limited. On the supply side, mining and processing operations are gradually resuming. In North China, weather conditions continue to affect the pace of work resumption. Mines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are restarting in the short term. Traders, holding a slightly optimistic short-term view, have engaged in some purchasing. Downstream enterprises are conducting essential restocking while closely watching the strong sulfuric acid market. With producers facing potential shutdowns or load adjustments, procurement is primarily need-based. Both supply and demand remain weak, resulting in quiet trading. Price movements are limited: trading focus in the North China market saw an increase of 50 RMB/ton; the Shandong market is stable or showing slight upward exploration; while markets in Jiangxi and Fujian have largely adjusted previous high prices to mainstream levels. Overall market fluctuations are constrained.