The spot methanol index plummeted, with market transaction centers shifting downward.

1. Key Focus Points

① Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction today started at 3,600 RMB/ton for a quantity of 5,000 tons; the entire lot went unsold.

② Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuo County)'s 2 million ton/year coal-to-methanol unit shut down for maintenance on October 10. The outage is expected to last 10–15 days. Monitor the subsequent restart schedule closely.

2. Today’s Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Today’s Commentary] Today’s domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,629.26, down 384.94. Specifically, Taicang spot prices were at 4,075 (-525), and Inner Mongolia North Line prices were at 3,380 (-390). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices declined in 17 cities by varying degrees, ranging from 50 to 625 RMB/ton. Today, both domestic methanol futures and spot markets experienced significant declines. Futures opened with a sharp drop and traded weakly at low levels throughout the day. Port-side daily declines ranged between 200 and 600 RMB/ton. The basis weakened significantly as buyers became cautious. Currently, negative feedback from downstream olefins has intensified. Combined with previously inflated prices, overall market willingness to hold inventory is weak, leading to substantial retracements in trading centers across regions. In the short term, given weakening supply-demand fundamentals, the market is expected to continue consolidating at lower levels.

3. Basis Analysis

Afternoon trading saw Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures maintain their weak trend. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,327 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,384 RMB/ton and a low of 3,176 RMB/ton, closing at 3,229 RMB/ton, which was 92 RMB/ton lower than the previous day’s settlement price. By close, open interest for the MA2701 contract stood at 773,400 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, domestic methanol futures and spot markets fell sharply across the board. Futures opened with a steep decline and remained weak at low levels. Port-side daily drops ranged from 200 to 600 RMB/ton, while the basis weakened significantly amid cautious buying sentiment. Intensifying negative feedback from downstream olefins, combined with previously inflated prices, has reduced overall market willingness to hold inventory, causing substantial retracements in trading centers nationwide. In the short term, due to weakening supply-demand conditions, the market is expected to continue its weak consolidation.

7. In the medium to long term, facing high post-holiday methanol prices, several mainstream downstream enterprises have halted operations, significantly alleviating supply tightness in the methanol market. Additionally, with expectations of increased vessel arrivals in November, port inventories are projected to rise, leading to substantial price declines across various regions. Attention should be paid to the market impact following the ongoing supply-demand tug-of-war.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Industry Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Product Updates

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today, factory-gate prices for glacial acetic acid remained largely stable. Enterprise inventories fluctuated within narrow ranges, and factories faced little sales pressure. However, traders reported sluggish offloading, as downstream acceptance of current prices was limited, cooling market sentiment. Chempricehub predicts that the glacial acetic acid market will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market was mostly stable today, with some local weakness. Feedstock methanol prices dropped widely, significantly easing cost pressures. Most formaldehyde plants maintained stable prices while adopting a wait-and-see approach. Downstream demand was limited to essential needs, resulting in thin transaction volumes. In Anhui, prices followed downward trends driven by falling costs, though transactions remained acceptable. Chempricehub predicts that the formaldehyde market center will shift lower in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market showed steady gains today. Although feedstock methanol prices fell sharply, relieving cost pressures, lagging cost impacts in the Southwest region led to stronger price centers in Chongqing. Other regions maintained stable pricing, with average transaction activity. Chempricehub predicts that the DME market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Note:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data changes within 0–3%.