① Quotations for fluorinated refrigerants and their blends remained firm during the month, with mixed price movements (gains and losses).
② In October, the correlation between prices of the four mainstream fluorinated refrigerant models in East China and production costs remained weak. Overall profits declined by 2.26% month-on-month but increased by 7.63% year-on-year.
③ For October 2026, household air conditioner production plans totaled 10.28 million units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.84% and a month-on-month increase of 5.44%. Domestic sales production plans stood at 5.10 million units, down 8.36% year-on-year and 5.36% month-on-month. Export production plans reached 5.18 million units, down 13.09% year-on-year but up 18.81% month-on-month.
Fluorinated Refrigerant R22: Demand Slips, Prices Trend Downward
On the cost side, as of press time, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries were primarily fulfilling monthly orders. The mainstream domestic market price ranged from 14,500 to 14,800 CNY/ton, maintaining consolidation at high levels. The markets for polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) and hexafluoropropylene (HFP) remained flat throughout the month with subdued trading activity, exerting some pressure on feedstock-grade demand for R22, though costs provided slight support. Fundamentally, the mainstream domestic price for ODS-grade R22 was referenced at 18,000–19,000 CNY/ton, with a monthly average of 19,857 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.21%. In October, R22 output was 71,600 tons, up 2.94% month-on-month. Capacity utilization remained at a high level of 68.07%, down 0.26 percentage points month-on-month. Market intelligence indicates that major manufacturers are simultaneously delivering prior orders and accepting new pre-orders, mainly for small-packaging products, tightening acceptance capacity. Sales of small-packaging products faced pressure in the summer maintenance market this year, with strong reluctance among channels to sell at low prices, collectively supporting firm quotations. On the export front, September’s R22 exports totaled 8,100 tons, up 14.85% month-on-month, demonstrating resilience despite quota reductions. Chempricehub Forecast: Looking ahead, feedstock-grade R22 is expected to trend upward, supported by costs. For ODS-grade R22, mainstream manufacturer ex-factory quotes are referenced at 24,000 CNY/ton, while the market range is expected to operate between 18,000 and 19,000 CNY/ton.
Fluorinated Refrigerant R32: Market Remains Flat and Firm, Volume Controlled to Support Prices
On the cost side, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries in October were primarily for monthly orders, with mainstream domestic prices referenced around 14,800–14,900 CNY/ton. Fundamentally, as of press time, the mainstream domestic price for R32 was referenced near 64,000–65,000 CNY/ton, with a monthly average of 64,500 CNY/ton, remaining stable month-on-month. On the supply side, October R32 output was 17,900 tons, down 0.46% month-on-month. Capacity utilization was 47.75%, down 1.85 percentage points month-on-month. Mainstream manufacturers maintained balanced production according to quota progress, with an average monthly load of 40–50%. Leading suppliers ensured steady supply to air conditioner manufacturers. Several plants implemented balanced inventory management, including scheduled maintenance and load reductions, adhering to firm pricing strategies and effectively executing volume control to support prices. Downstream, October 2026 household air conditioner production plans were 10.28 million units (down 10.84% YoY, up 5.44% MoM); domestic sales plans were 5.10 million units (down 8.36% YoY, down 5.36% MoM); and export plans were 5.18 million units (down 13.09% YoY, up 18.81% MoM). Chempricehub Forecast: Mainstream manufacturer quotes for R32 are referenced at 65,500 CNY/ton. Under the rigid constraints of the quota system, enterprises have a strong willingness to control volumes and support prices. Prices are expected to remain firm at high levels, operating within a mainstream range of 63,500–64,500 CNY/ton.
Fluorinated Refrigerant R134a: Consolidating at High Levels, Replenishment During Dips
On the cost side, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries in October were primarily for monthly orders, with mainstream domestic delivered prices referenced at 14,800–14,900 CNY/ton. Trichloroethylene mainstream delivered prices in Shandong were referenced at 4,800 CNY/ton. As of press time, mainstream large manufacturer quotes for domestic R134a were referenced near 68,000 CNY/ton, with a monthly average of 64,000 CNY/ton, remaining stable month-on-month. Throughout the month, mainstream plants maintained firm high-level pricing, contrasting with the spot market’s long-term stagnation or slight downward drift, creating a "divergence." Buyers and sellers engaged in intense bargaining, fearing buying at highs. Given that scarcity has eased following adjustments to R134a supply quotas, channel sentiment has become more cautious, leading to longer inquiry and ordering cycles. On the supply side, October R134a output was 11,100 tons, a significant month-on-month drop of 43.94% and a year-on-year decline of 44.07%. Capacity utilization was only 35.85%, down 28.22 percentage points month-on-month. The decline in output and operating rates reflects a pragmatic strategy by manufacturers to actively control production pace to match diminishing marginal benefits relative to demand. On the export front, September R134a exports totaled 9,100 tons, up 23.40% month-on-month but down 5.28% year-on-year, indicating concentrated release of demand during the export window. Chempricehub Forecast: Mainstream manufacturer quotes for R134a are referenced at 68,000 CNY/ton. With rising penetration of R134a usage in new energy vehicles driving steady growth in rigid demand, coupled with continued replenishment needs on the export side, prices are expected to maintain high-level operations, within a mainstream range of 64,500–65,000 CNY/ton.
Fluorinated Refrigerant R125: Domestic Market Flat, Foreign Trade Weak
On the cost side, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries in October were primarily for monthly orders, with mainstream domestic delivered prices referenced at 14,800–14,900 CNY/ton. The tetrachloroethylene market saw quotes decline late in the month; as of press time, mainstream ex-factory prices in Shandong were referenced near 2,800–2,900 CNY/ton, with a monthly average of 2,627 CNY/ton, up 1.29% month-on-month. Fundamentally, mainstream large manufacturer quotes for domestic R125 are currently referenced at 60,000 CNY/ton, with actual transactions gradually following suit. The monthly average was 55,000 CNY/ton, flat month-on-month. On the supply side, October R125 output was 8,000 tons, up 23.29% month-on-month but down 3.96% year-on-year. Capacity utilization was 32.23%, down 11.19% month-on-month and 0.65% year-on-year. The domestic market consolidated at high levels with firm quotes from major producers. Regarding foreign trade, September R125 exports were only 2,100 tons, up 74.22% month-on-month and significantly up 154.67% year-on-year, reflecting active scheduling for future periods during the export window. Chempricehub Forecast: Manufacturers are expected to maintain low-load operations, keeping ex-factory quotes firm. Mainstream East China prices are referenced at 54,000–57,000 CNY/ton. Tight supply under quota controls supports domestic prices, while slow recovery in overseas demand suggests a higher probability of weak consolidation in foreign trade. The spread between domestic and export prices is likely to persist.
For October 2026, household air conditioner production plans totaled 10.28 million units, down 10.84% year-on-year and up 5.44% month-on-month. Domestic sales production plans were 5.10 million units, down 8.36% year-on-year and 5.36% month-on-month. Export production plans were 5.18 million units, down 13.09% year-on-year and up 18.81% month-on-month.
Forecast for the Next Three Months (November 2026 – January 2027): Domestic refrigerant operating rates will gradually decline due to reduced loads. Imported refrigerants will consolidate within ranges. During the export window, there will be aggressive efforts to secure export slots, with strict control over quota consumption progress. Household air conditioner production plans for November 2026 through January 2027 are expected to rise initially before declining, with export production plans increasing slowly. However, current production expectations still fall short of the peak levels seen in 2024, and overseas markets continue to face inventory and competitive pressures. Chempricehub estimates that mainstream refrigerant prices will consolidate at high levels. For November 2026, the average price for R22 is projected at approximately 17,000 CNY/ton; R32 at approximately 64,500 CNY/ton; R125 at approximately 55,000 CNY/ton; and R134a at approximately 64,000 CNY/ton.
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