Tight Supply and Rising Prices, Yet Weak Momentum for Further Gains: Bull-Bear Tug-of-War in the Aniline Market (October 16–22, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

• Supply contraction drove market sentiment, with tight spot availability supporting prices.
• Weak demand combined with diminished cost guidance limited upside potential.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

The aniline market exhibited a "tight supply, rising price" trend this week. On the supply side, concentrated shutdowns of northern facilities led to a continuous tightening of circulating inventory, serving as the primary driver for price increases. However, demand remained sluggish, with downstream buyers largely purchasing on an as-needed basis and showing little willingness to chase higher prices. Although pure benzene costs remained at elevated levels, robust profitability in upstream sectors weakened its influence on aniline pricing.

Looking ahead, the resumption of operations at previously inspected facilities is expected to increase available supply, alleviating current tightness. However, reports indicate that restart progress at some enterprises has been uneven, necessitating real-time monitoring of actual operating rates. On the demand side, domestic downstream activity remains relatively weak, failing to provide upward momentum. Regarding costs, pure benzene may face short-squeezing expectations toward month-end, maintaining firm cost support. Consequently, aniline prices are projected to remain stable with a bullish bias, likely trading within the range of 16,500–16,700 yuan/ton.