Trading sentiment remains subdued, with the market clearly trending downward.

1. Daily Summary

① A specific enterprise quoted solid sulfur at 5,660 RMB/ton; actual transaction details remain to be observed.

② National port inventory stood at 1.1198 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.76%.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Sulfur Port Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Taking Zhenjiang Port as the benchmark, today’s mainstream granular price was 5,800 RMB/ton, aligning with morning expectations. Bearish sentiment among market participants was evident, leading to continued wait-and-see operations driven by inertia. Holders were left with no choice but to passively wait, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere within the ports and a persistent weak trend in market prices. Last weekend, liquid sulfur prices from Shandong local refineries fell below the "5" thousand mark, triggering complex emotions and speculation in the market. Rumors suggested sporadic buying interest within the ports, though specific bid intentions were not disclosed. Without notable negotiation interactions, the market price center was forced downward under pressure.

3. Market Sentiment

Table 2: Domestic Sulfur Upstream and Downstream Participant Sentiment Forecast

4. Price Forecast

Currently, most merchants are bearish on the future market, with operational tendencies leaning towards inertial observation. Inventory holders have no alternative options other than passive waiting. Unless unexpected events occur, short-term market prices may continue to decline.

5. Related Products Status

Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Today, the domestic Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) market remained weakly consolidated, with the price center temporarily stable. Factory gate quotes for 55% powder in Hubei maintained at 3,600–3,650 RMB/ton, with transactions still primarily based on actual order negotiations. Low-end prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Downstream demand remains weak; however, given the significant cumulative price reductions previously, manufacturers show little willingness to offer further discounts, shifting their mindset to observation. Today, factory gate prices for Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) at 64% content were around 4,700–4,850 RMB/ton, with actual orders remaining under negotiation. The domestic DAP market continues its pattern of weak consolidation. As the autumn fertilizer season nears its end, market sentiment is generally bearish. Downstream users maintain minimal replenishment based on immediate needs, resulting in an overall lukewarm trading atmosphere. Demand follow-up remains limited, and the possibility of further declines in low-content product prices cannot be ruled out.

Sulfuric Acid Market: The national sulfuric acid market is running weakly stable. In Shandong, quotes stabilized today, but market sentiment has clearly loosened. The collapse-like decline in sulfur prices is currently the most critical variable: Shandong liquid sulfur has fallen below the 5,000 RMB/ton threshold, marking a significant drop. Poor inventory clearance by refineries combined with the downstream "buy high, sell low" psychology creates a negative feedback loop. Local refinery auctions over the weekend briefly touched a low of 4,800 RMB/ton. Differentiation in the sulfuric acid sector has intensified: actual delivered prices for smelter acid are in the range of 1,350–1,400 RMB/ton, while listed prices for ore-based acid continue to probe lower, with hidden reductions persisting through the weekend. Maintenance involving approximately 2.7 million tons of capacity at major acid enterprises in Luxi and Jiaodong regions provides some phased support due to supply contraction. However, the cost support for sulfur-derived acid (actual transaction at 2,600 RMB/ton) is eroding in real-time as raw materials fall below 5,000 RMB/ton, creating the most prominent downside pressure. On the demand side, with the autumn fertilizer season ending and winter stockpiling not yet started, operating rates for MAP and DAP remain low, making it difficult for rigid demand procurement to absorb supply. The Inner Mongolia sulfuric acid market continues its weak trend of probing lower prices, lacking positive drivers from both supply and demand sides. The fertilizer sector is in a semi-stagnant state; after the conclusion of autumn fertilization, winter stockpiling has not commenced, and purchases of sulfuric acid by downstream phosphate and compound fertilizer companies have largely halted, leading to sustained accumulation of shipping pressure for major acid producers. Main acid enterprises in Eastern Inner Mongolia lowered their listed prices again, further confirming the regional downtrend. Although some acid enterprises in Bayannur and other areas have maintenance schedules, the supportive effect of reduced production is limited. In the near term, the Inner Mongolia sulfuric acid market will likely remain under pressure. Price stabilization requires signals such as the start of winter stockpiling or substantial recovery in downstream hydrofluoric acid operations. It is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.

6. Data Calendar

Table 3: Domestic Sulfur Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)