Unsaturated Resins: Losses Intensified in Q3, Profitability Pressure Persists into Q4

【Introduction】As the third quarter of 2026 concluded, the unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) market experienced a deepening sluggishness during the off-season and insufficient momentum in the peak season. Overall industry demand remained weak, with limited upward price pressure. During Q3, UPR prices fluctuated within a range of approximately CNY 9,100–11,100 per ton, characterized primarily by oscillating upward trends.

The East China UPR market in Q3 2026 exhibited an overall trend of oscillating upward movement. The quarter spanned both off-peak and peak seasons, where market prices have historically been significantly influenced by supply-demand dynamics. This year’s market was primarily driven by costs; as core raw materials such as styrene, maleic anhydride, and phthalic anhydride successively raised their prices, cost support strengthened continuously, pushing UPR quotations higher. However, demand-side performance was lackluster. Downstream customers maintained only rigid demand procurement, rarely placing bulk orders, and preferred to moderately replenish stocks at lower price levels. Although the market entered an upward channel, growth stalled in early August and September: despite sustained rises in raw material prices, downstream and end-users showed strong resistance to high prices, leading to insufficient purchasing volumes. Consequently, resin prices struggled to achieve significant increases, resulting in narrow-range fluctuations.

From a pricing perspective, UPR market quotations in Q3 continued to rise, presenting a relatively impressive performance. Conversely, regarding profitability, industry margins remained deeply entrenched in the loss zone, with profit levels notably weaker than those of the same period in previous years. As of the closing on September 30, the average gross margin for UPR in Q3 stood at -CNY 155 per ton. Compared to the same period last year, the change in gross margin was significant, reflecting a decline of CNY 678 per ton, representing a year-on-year drop of 130%. In this market cycle, upstream raw materials across the industrial chain generally trended upward, with raw material price increases exceeding the markup on finished resin products. Poor transmission of cost increases meant that resin price hikes could not fully cover the rising raw material costs, keeping the industry in a state of continuous loss. Overall, the industry’s profit space this year contracted significantly compared to last year, with cost compression remaining the core factor dragging down industry profits.

Data Source: Chempricehub

The unsaturated polyester resin industry remains deeply mired in losses. Since the second half of 2023, industry profitability has entered a downward trajectory. Shifts in the supply-demand structure suppressed product market performance, causing industry profits to gradually decline. While the intense competition resulting from previous capacity expansions persisted, the industry was still able to maintain profitability at that time. Entering 2026, accompanied by the overall uptrend in the chemical sector, upstream raw material prices continued to rise. However, the price increase for finished UPR products lagged behind the rise in costs. From the perspective of profit distribution along the industrial chain, profitability pressures in upstream segments are gradually transmitting to the downstream resin industry.

Looking ahead, cost-side support is likely to remain strong. In Q4, new UPR production capacities will be concentrated online, releasing incremental market supply and further intensifying industry competition. Currently, downstream demand recovery is falling short of expectations; combined with amplified supply-demand pressures, there is a risk that industry losses may expand further. However, if the progress of new capacity commissioning falls short of expectations, it may provide support for industry profits, offering room for slight recovery. Regarding demand, October represents the traditional peak demand season for the year. Observations from the past two weeks indicate that firm rises in raw material prices have pushed UPR quotations higher. Starting in November, the market will transition into the year-end off-season, with overall sentiment expected to weaken and prices facing downside expectations.