Upward Shift in Costs for Well and Mine Salt Fuels Strong Price Hike Sentiment Among Salt Producers (Oct 9–15, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: The autumn harvest of sea salt in Haiyan is underway, with the conclusion expected between mid-to-late October and early November. In North China, well-mineral salt enterprises have entered scheduled maintenance as planned, leading to a decrease in supply. Well-mineral salt inventories remain low, resulting in strong price-hike sentiment among producers, while downstream enterprises show significant resistance to high mineral salt prices. New well-mineral salt capacity is expected to come online in East China soon. Import salt landed prices remain at high levels, and the domestic raw salt market shows steady growth. However, the price gap between imported salt and domestic raw salt persists, and downstream chlor-alkali enterprises' procurement enthusiasm for imported salt remains moderate.

2. This week (October 9–15, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese sample enterprises with capacities of 100,000 tons or more was 74.8%, down 4.0% week-on-week. During the week, eight chlor-alkali units underwent maintenance, two restarted, and several others reduced loads due to external factors, leading to a notable decline in overall chlor-alkali operating rates. By region, operating rates fell across Northwest, North, Central, East, Northeast, and South China, with the Northwest and Northeast regions recording the largest weekly declines. Specifically, Shandong's chlor-alkali operating rate stood at 76.7%, down 3.4% week-on-week. Looking ahead, three chlor-alkali units are scheduled for maintenance and eight for restarts next week; national chlor-alkali operating rates are estimated to recover to around 75.8%.

3. According to Chempricehub news on October 15: This week's comprehensive soda ash capacity utilization rate was 64.59%, down from 76.15% last week, representing a 11.55% week-on-week decline. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 73.43%, down 0.67% week-on-week; the by-product process capacity utilization rate was 63.56%, down 1.58% week-on-week. For the 16 enterprises with annual capacities of one million tons or more, the overall capacity utilization rate was 70.70%, down 15.16% week-on-week.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Domestic Raw Salt Price Weekly Change Table

Unit: RMB/ton

This week, sea salt prices remained largely stable, though some tender prices saw slight decreases, indicating a slowing downward trend. In North China, well-mineral salt enterprises entered scheduled maintenance. Some firms continued fulfilling previous orders to ensure the supply of dry salt and edible salt, reducing bulk salt availability and keeping mineral salt inventories at low levels. Chlor-alkali enterprises in the region purchased mineral salt at prices increased by approximately 5–10 RMB, with some tender prices slightly higher, facing resistance from downstream users due to elevated costs. The upward price momentum persisted in East China, where mineral salt inventories declined compared to previous periods. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new mineral salt capacity in East China. Raw salt prices in Central China remained relatively stable with an upward sentiment, but downstream acceptance was limited as most transactions involved fulfilling prior orders, making further price increases difficult. In Northwest China, increased chlor-alkali maintenance led to reduced demand for raw salt. Enterprises in Ningxia and Gansu that had previously shut down for maintenance have not yet resumed operations. Other regional raw salt prices remained basicly stable, while export orders for well-mineral salt in the Northwest saw slight price adjustments.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. North China: This week, the average price of 32% caustic soda in the Shandong region declined, with Southwest, West, and South Shandong areas experiencing the largest drops, while North Shandong remained largely stable. From the weekend into early this week, local prices softened as commodity volumes increased, putting pressure on high-priced segments. Consequently, prices followed suit with gradual declines throughout the week. The industry actively shipped to alumina producers, but unloading rhythms slowed, hindering inventory depletion, leaving room for further correction of high 32% caustic soda prices. Hebei's market performance diverged during the week: Cangzhou prices bottomed out and inventories dropped due to low operating rates combined with large order signings, eventually leading to a moderate convergence of low internal prices by Thursday. Meanwhile, Hengshui's relatively high selling prices were pressured by lower prices in surrounding areas, leading to declines.

2. This week, the domestic soda ash market showed weak trends with prices remaining generally stable with minor fluctuations. Data from Chempricehub indicates that domestic soda ash production totaled 605,600 tons during the week, a decrease of 108,300 tons week-on-week, representing a drop of 15.17%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 64.59%, down from 76.15% last week, a decline of 11.55%. Continuous unit maintenance led to a substantial reduction in supply.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Short-term raw salt prices are expected to maintain stability with potential upside. The autumn harvest of sea salt is gradually progressing and is expected to be completed between mid-to-late October and early November, creating expectations for increased sea salt supply. Domestic well-mineral salt enterprises are facing significantly rising costs due to increasing thermal coal prices. In North China, mineral salt enterprises have entered scheduled maintenance; those ensuring dry salt and edible salt supplies while fulfilling previous orders have seen reduced supply and low inventories. Salt producers exhibit strong price-increase sentiment, with mineral salt prices rising by approximately 10 RMB/ton during the week. Downstream enterprises show significant resistance to high mineral salt prices. It is projected that raw salt prices may see slight increases in the future, driven by the rise in mineral salt prices.