Weak Demand Drives Rapid Decline in Sulfonic Acid Prices (October 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Month

① Domestic sulfur production in China was approximately 962,000 tons this month, representing a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 7.87%.

② National consumption totaled 1,206,900 tons during this period, up 0.70% MoM.

③ Current national port inventory stood at 1,125,100 tons, marking a 20.09% MoM increase.

④ The capacity utilization rate for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) in the industry was 39.94% this month, down 8.12 percentage points from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate for diammonium phosphate (DAP) was 43.33%, down 4.35 percentage points from the previous month.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Table 1: International Sulfur Market Price Monthly Change Table (Unit: USD/ton)

Table 2: Domestic Sulfur Price Summary Table (Unit: CNY/ton)

The spot market for sulfur in China experienced a rapid downward trend in October. As of now, the transaction price for spot sulfur at Zhenjiang Port is 4,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2,300 CNY/ton compared to the end of September, representing a drop of 32.39%.

During the National Day holiday, prices in the USD-denominated spot market softened. This was particularly driven by reports that multiple batches of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which alleviated concerns about international supply and further weakened market sentiment. Consequently, traders adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in sluggish trading activity with no substantial change in pace compared to pre-holiday levels. However, as time progressed, buyers at ports continuously tested lower prices. Under psychological pressure, holders shifted to an adjustment-and-offloading mode, causing the market to enter a downtrend. The weakness in USD-priced offers did not cease abruptly; instead, it emboldened subsequent buyers to press for even lower prices. The trading atmosphere remained cold, leaving sellers in a passive position. Meanwhile, domestic producers sought to reduce inventories, leading them to repeatedly lower their quoted prices. This dragged down the central level of spot prices, forcing port prices to decline significantly and consecutively. After several days of downward consolidation, some interest emerged among merchants, though they continued to probe for low prices out of habit. Holders showed willingness to sell opportunistically, keeping the market on a downward trajectory, albeit with a narrower decline than previously seen. Demand failed to provide any boost, especially as performance in the autumn fertilizer market was mediocre, offering no positive transmission to the sulfur market. The buying force lacked sustainability, causing spot prices to fall noticeably day after day. Furthermore, under the prevailing "buy on the rise, avoid the fall" sentiment, traders struggled to build confidence in future market directions.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

① As of October 28, port inventory in the Yangtze River region was 310,000 tons, a decrease of 1.27% compared to the end of the previous month.

② The capacity utilization rate for sulfuric acid in October was approximately 63.12%, down 0.89% MoM.

4. Next Month's Market Forecast

Currently, there are expectations for international sulfur prices to continue softening. Domestically, the main downstream sector, phosphatic fertilizers, struggles to provide favorable support for the sulfur market due to targeted supply guarantees for major resources and export restrictions on phosphatic fertilizers and sulfuric acid. Additionally, demand trends from other chemical industries downstream remain uncertain. Against this backdrop, restoring market confidence is difficult. Coupled with the dominance of the "buy on the rise, avoid the fall" sentiment, the domestic sulfur spot market in November is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend.