1. Key Market Focus This Week

① Influenced by costs and supply-demand dynamics, epichlorohydrin (ECH) prices remained stable before declining.
② Fluctuations in plant operating rates persisted, leading to a continuous contraction in ECH supply.
③ Weakening cost support, combined with limited demand, caused epoxy resin prices to fall.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Source: Chempricehub Information

This week, the domestic epichlorohydrin (ECH) market exhibited a trend of stability followed by decline. The weekly average price in the Jiangsu market was 11,295 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week increase of 0.27%.

Cost Side: Propylene prices fell significantly, liquid chlorine maintained range-bound fluctuations, and the center of gravity for glycerol prices shifted downward. Costs across all production routes declined simultaneously. Although profitability for the propylene route improved slightly, it remains hovering near the cost line, while the glycerol route continues to operate at a loss.

Supply Side: Limited profit margins across different production processes, coupled with environmental controls in parts of Shandong, have dampened producers' willingness to operate. Industry utilization rates generally contracted, leading to a sustained reduction in supply. Most available goods are allocated to contract deliveries and previous orders, resulting in tight spot liquidity which provided phased support to the market. In the first half of the week, producers showed little willingness to sell at low prices, with quotes mostly consolidating within ranges.

Demand Side: Downstream buyers had limited acceptance of high raw material prices and held cautious expectations for future trends. Sentiment was largely wait-and-see, with rigid demand procurement slowing down and resistance increasing for manufacturers trying to offload inventory. As some ECH plants in Shandong restarted, competitive pressure within the market intensified. In the second half of the week, enterprises became more willing to offer discounts to facilitate sales, further dragging prices down and reducing overall trading activity.

As of November 12, the delivered acceptance price in the Jiangsu market was 11,200–11,300 RMB/ton, a decrease of 75 RMB/ton from November 5, representing a drop of 0.66%.

3. Next Week Market Forecast

Looking ahead to next week, the domestic ECH market is expected to maintain a weak, narrow-range adjustment pattern.

Cost Side: Raw material propylene faces expectations of correction, and glycerol prices may continue their downward trend, causing production costs across all routes to weaken synchronously. However, there remains bottom support on the raw material side, constraining the downside potential for ECH prices.

Supply Side: The tight supply situation is likely to persist. Some units in Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu remain shut down or operating at reduced loads, leading to an expected slight contraction in domestic supply. Meanwhile, producers prioritize fulfilling contract orders, keeping spot liquidity tight and providing certain support to the market.

Demand Side: Demand will remain weak. Operating rates in the key downstream epoxy resin industry are expected to decline. Enterprises are cautious about purchasing raw materials at high prices, mainly executing long-term contracts and digesting existing inventories. New orders will follow rigid demand only, dragging down upstream raw material procurement needs.

Against the backdrop of insufficient demand support, market participants hold bearish sentiment. Producers' willingness to sell increases, competition intensifies, and this further suppresses the trading atmosphere.

Conclusion: Currently, negative factors dominate the market, making it easier for ECH prices to shift downward than upward. However, constrained by cost floors, the extent of the decline will be relatively limited.