[Lead-in]: Recently, the upstream pure benzene market has fluctuated. Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene saw a slight reduction, and sulfur prices continued to decline, weakening cost support for caprolactam. On the supply side, minor load reductions maintained a weak balance. Downstream polymerization and weaving utilization rates remained stable, but end-user demand was sluggish with cautious procurement sentiment, putting pressure on the caprolactam market and causing spot prices to dip slightly.
| Figure 1: Pure Benzene Price Trend (CNY/ton) | Figure 2: Sulfur Price Trend (CNY/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information | Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Pure Benzene: The pure benzene market has recently been volatile, with overall prices trending slightly lower. This week, spot prices in the East China region fluctuated downward, trading within a range of 10,100–10,530 CNY/ton. Sinopec reduced its listed pure benzene price by 200 CNY to 10,600 CNY/ton. On the supply side, some refineries maintained defensive load reductions due to feedstock constraints, but units that underwent previous maintenance have gradually returned, leading to a month-over-month recovery in overall operating rates. Import arrivals provided some replenishment; although port inventories remain low, the pace of destocking has slowed. Key downstream products showed strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, limiting procurement to rigid demand. Expectations of reduced demand pressured the market. Overall, the combination of weakening cost support and softening demand led to a downward fluctuation in pure benzene prices this week.
Sulfur: The domestic sulfur market continued to show weakness. As of Thursday, mainstream granular sulfur prices at Zhenjiang Port were 5,550 CNY/ton, down 1,050 CNY from last Thursday’s price (6,600 CNY), representing a decline of 15.91%. Market participants held predominantly bearish sentiment, driving continuous price drops. The weak cost-side support for caprolactam has negatively impacted downstream traders’ sentiment.
Since October, some caprolactam units have implemented minor load reductions. Enterprises such as Hunan Petrochemical, Baling Hengyi, Luxi Chemical, and Pingmei Shenma have reduced loads to varying degrees. Lunan Chemical’s unit remains offline for maintenance. This week, caprolactam production totaled 121,500 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week-over-week. Capacity utilization stood at 70.03%, down 0.75 percentage points week-over-week, maintaining a weak supply-demand balance. Caprolactam enterprise inventories decreased slightly, though the reduction was limited. Current inventory levels stand at 44,000 tons, down 1,500 tons week-over-week, a decline of 3.30%. Although inventories dipped slightly, constrained by slow downstream raw material procurement rhythms, some enterprises still face sales pressure, which holds back spot prices.
| Figure 3: PA6 Enterprise Production and Capacity Utilization Trend (10,000 tons) | Figure 2: Nylon Filament Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization Trend (10,000 tons) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information | Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Currently, the capacity utilization rate for downstream PA6 chips is 62.01%, with weekly production maintaining 116,300 tons. The operating load for nylon filament is 67%, unchanged week-over-week. The domestic weaving industry’s operating rate is 51.38%, a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points. Downstream demand remains limited to rigid needs, with no obvious recovery in the end-user market. Polymerization enterprises are primarily procuring based on immediate needs, widely engaging in price-negotiation tactics. The overall market procurement atmosphere is weak, with limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials.
Outlook
Cost Aspect: There are expectations for pure benzene to remain strong at high levels. Next week’s East China pure benzene prices are estimated between 10,300–10,700 CNY/ton. International oil prices still hold potential upside, providing some floor support for raw materials. However, downstream resistance to high-priced inputs persists, creating significant barriers to passing costs down the chain.
Supply and Demand Aspect: In the short term, caprolactam unit operations are likely to remain stable. Plans for increases or decreases exist for November and December, including the potential restart of Lunan Chemical in November, planned maintenance for one line at Yongrong Technology in November, and planned maintenance for Tianchen Yaolong in December. Overall, northern regions may still face supply pressure from late October through November. On the demand side, polymerization enterprises hold a bearish sentiment, continuing cautious raw material procurement and price-negotiation models. It is expected that the demand side will continue to exert negative pressure on the market.
Conclusion: Looking at the big picture, the caprolactam market in late October sees some cost support amidst pure benzene’s high-level fluctuations. However, the supply-demand tug-of-war constrains the market, and supply-side pressure may increase in November. Overall, the caprolactam market is expected to remain under pressure and trade somewhat weakly through late October. Key focus areas going forward include crude oil and pure benzene price volatility, changes in caprolactam enterprise maintenance schedules, actual order intake from downstream end-users, and procurement rhythms.
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