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Weekly Analysis of Theoretical Profit for Butadiene in China (October 15–21, 2026)

Published on 2026-10-22

I. Qualitative Analysis of Sample Trends

During the current period (October 15–21, 2026), the profit for the C4 extraction process was 3,507.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 384.77 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The profit for the oxidative dehydrogenation process was -363.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 348 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The profit for the coal-to-oil process was 306.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 960.67 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Within the week, prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, continuing to increase cost pressures on butadiene production. Coupled with persistent weak demand from major downstream products, supplier prices were dragged down. Sinopec lowered its butadiene price, impacting the shrinking profits of the extraction and oxidative dehydrogenation processes. For the coal-to-oil process, rising raw material costs combined with lower butadiene prices led to decreased processing profits.

Table: Production Profit Comparison by Butadiene Process (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Product Current Period Previous Period Change in Value Percentage Change
C4 Extraction 3507.65 3892.42 -384.77 -9.89%
Oxidative Dehydrogenation -363.00 -15.00 -348.00 -2320.00%
Coal-to-Oil 306.00 1266.67 -960.67 -75.84%

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

II. Predictive Analysis of Sample Trends

Currently, the cost side continues to provide strong support to the market. As downstream units gradually restart in the next period, demand is expected to recover stepwise. Consequently, butadiene production profits are anticipated to see a slight increase.

III. Comparison of Product Sample Trends and Prices

Sample Description: This theoretical profit monitoring is compiled by Chempricehub Information based on the raw material prices required for different Chinese butadiene production processes, as well as the sample enterprise prices and market prices for these processes.

Statistical Scope: The statistical period for butadiene production profits across different processes covers data from the Thursday of the current week. Data is released before 17:00 on each working Friday.

Comments

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  • Hannah Berg 2026-10-22 20:08
    Rising feedstock costs and weak downstream demand squeezed butadiene margins across all processes this week. With Sinopec cutting prices, oxidative dehydrogenation even hit losses. I expect capacity utilization to drop a..
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