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Weekly Analysis of Theoretical Profit for Butadiene in China (September 17–23, 2026)

Published on 2026-09-24

I. Qualitative Analysis of Sample Trends

During the current period (September 17–23, 2026), the profit for the C4 extraction process was 4,396.54 RMB/ton, a decrease of 607.69 RMB/ton compared to the previous period. The profit for the oxidative dehydrogenation process was 93.30 RMB/ton, down by 847 RMB/ton from the previous period. The profit for the coal-to-oil process stood at 1,203.30 RMB/ton. Within the week, prices for crude oil and naphtha declined slightly, easing cost pressures on butadiene production. However, weak downstream demand dragged supplier prices downward. Sinopec also adjusted its butadiene pricing lower, which compressed profits for both the extraction and oxidative dehydrogenation processes. In contrast, the supply-side profit for the coal-to-oil process improved due to a significant drop in raw material costs.

Table: Butadiene Production Profits by Process (Unit: RMB/ton)

Product Current Period Previous Period Change Value Change Rate
C4 Extraction 4396.54 5004.23 -607.69 -12.14%
Oxidative Dehydrogenation 93.30 940.00 -847 -90.07%
Coal-to-Oil 1203.30 790.00 413 52.32%

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

II. Forecast Analysis of Sample Trends

Currently, the tight domestic supply situation has eased, offering limited support or guidance to market trends. Combined with weak downstream demand, this is exerting pressure on the market. Consequently, butadiene production profits are expected to shrink slightly.

III. Comparison of Product Sample Trends and Prices

As of September 24, 2026, mainstream butadiene market prices in China fluctuated weakly. The weekly average delivered price for butadiene in central Shandong was 13,738 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week decline of 4.13%.

Sample Description: Chempricehub Information monitors theoretical profits based on raw material prices required for various butadiene production processes, sample enterprise prices for different butadiene production processes, and general market prices in China.

Statistical Scope: The statistical period for butadiene production profits across different processes covers data from Thursday of the current week. Data is released before 17:00 on each business Friday.

Comments

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  • Hannah Berg 2026-09-24 20:13
    Butadiene margins squeezed by weak downstream demand and lower Sinopec prices, though coal-to-oil feedstock cost drops boosted profits. With supply easing, I expect continued pressure on extraction routes until demand re..
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